UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Maia vs Gastelum

2,102

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Maia

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
71% chance Maia
WILL WIN

1,949

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Demian Maia
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.3 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.8 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.2 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
A lot taller 183 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 8.5 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission offense 8.1 vs 7.5 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.5 vs 7.9 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Advantages for Kelvin Gastelum
Much younger 25 years vs 39 years More than 35% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier hands 7.6 vs 7.2 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.5 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Maia on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gastelum’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Demian
Maia
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Maia Gastelum
Significant Strikes64
Maia's average striking offense is matched by Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns6
Maia's excellent takedown offense will dominate Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Maia is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Maia has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Maia has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Gastelum on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Maia’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kelvin
Gastelum
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Gastelum Maia
Significant Strikes53
Gastelum's average striking offense won't be a factor against Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Gastelum's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Maia's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gastelum is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gastelum is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gastelum has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Maia 8.3
fighter Gastelum 8.5
Great striking by Gastelum
14 strikes Aug 28, 2013 vs Melancon
31 strikes Apr 13, 2013 vs Hall

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Maia 9.7
fighter Gastelum 8.9
Great takedowns by Maia
7 takedowns Feb 02, 2013 vs Fitch
4 takedowns Oct 08, 2011 vs Santiago
1 takedown Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Maia 7.2
fighter Gastelum 7.6
Great knockouts by Gastelum
Round 1 Jul 20, 2012 vs Ashford
Round 2 Oct 22, 2011 vs Gentile
Round 3 Jul 16, 2011 vs Moguel

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Maia 8.1
fighter Gastelum 7.5
Great submissions by Maia
Round 1 Oct 13, 2012 vs Story
Round 1 Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen
Round 2 Apr 19, 2008 vs Herman

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Maia 8.5
fighter Gastelum 7.9
Fast finishes by Maia
150 seconds Oct 13, 2012 vs Story
47 seconds Jul 07, 2012 vs Hyun Kim
157 seconds Feb 21, 2009 vs Sonnen
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Maia
legend Gastelum
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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