UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Poirier vs Garza

2,052

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Poirier

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
84% chance Poirier
WILL WIN

1,760

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Dustin Poirier
Better striker 9.1 vs 8.2 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 8.1 vs 7.0 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.8 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.1 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Much better submission defense 8.7 vs 7.6 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Younger 28 years vs 34 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger jaw 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better takedown defense 8.5 vs 8.1 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission offense 7.9 vs 7.7 Almost the same
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Pablo Garza
A lot taller 185 cm vs 175 cm More than 5% taller
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Poirier on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Garza’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dustin
Poirier
In 7:06, how much damage will he do? Poirier Garza
Significant Strikes41
Poirier's excellent striking offense will dominate Garza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 64 Significant Strikes in 7:06
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Poirier's average takedown offense is matched by Garza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:06
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Poirier has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Poirier has a chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Average
Resistance
Decision
Poirier is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Garza on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Poirier’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Pablo
Garza
In 7:06, how much damage will he do? Garza Poirier
Significant Strikes31
Garza's average striking offense is matched by Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 64 Significant Strikes in 7:06
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Garza's average takedown offense is matched by Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:06
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Garza is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Garza is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Garza is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Poirier 9.1
fighter Garza 8.2
Great striking by Poirier
44 strikes Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
54 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Koch
77 strikes Jan 01, 2011 vs Grispi

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Poirier 8.0
fighter Garza 8.1
Great takedowns by Garza
2 takedowns Nov 17, 2012 vs Hominick

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Poirier 8.1
fighter Garza 7.0
Great knockouts by Poirier
Round 1 Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
Round 1 Nov 11, 2010 vs Micklewright
Round 1 Jun 18, 2010 vs Gauthier

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Poirier 7.9
fighter Garza 7.7
Great submissions by Poirier
Round 1 Dec 15, 2012 vs Brookins
Round 2 Nov 12, 2011 vs Garza
Round 2 Jun 26, 2009 vs Jolly

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Poirier 8.7
fighter Garza 7.8
Fast finishes by Poirier
294 seconds Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
255 seconds Dec 15, 2012 vs Brookins
534 seconds Jun 26, 2009 vs Jolly
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
November 12, 2011UFC on Fox 1
team
VS
team
R2 SUBX
R1 KOX
1,9271,869
1,9691,827
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Poirier
legend Garza
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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