UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Poirier vs Alvarez

2,052

CageRank

WINNER
Alvarez

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
74% chance Alvarez
WILL WIN

2,231

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Eddie Alvarez
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.0 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly heavier hands 8.8 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Taller 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Fast finishes 8.9 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.3 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission offense 8.0 vs 7.9 Almost the same
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 9.0 Almost the same
Advantages for Dustin Poirier
Significantly better striker 9.1 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Younger 28 years vs 33 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Alvarez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Poirier’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Eddie
Alvarez
In 11:28, how much damage will he do? Alvarez Poirier
Significant Strikes61
Alvarez's good striking offense may be a factor against Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 103 Significant Strikes in 11:28
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Alvarez's excellent takedown offense will dominate Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:28
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alvarez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Poirier on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alvarez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dustin
Poirier
In 11:28, how much damage will he do? Poirier Alvarez
Significant Strikes65
Poirier's excellent striking offense will dominate Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 103 Significant Strikes in 11:28
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Poirier's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:28
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Poirier has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Poirier is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Poirier is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Alvarez 8.7
fighter Poirier 9.1
Great striking by Poirier
44 strikes Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
54 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Koch
77 strikes Jan 01, 2011 vs Grispi

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Alvarez 9.2
fighter Poirier 8.0
Great takedowns by Alvarez
2 takedowns Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
7 takedowns May 11, 2008 vs Hansen
3 takedowns Mar 15, 2008 vs Amado

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Alvarez 8.8
fighter Poirier 8.1
Great knockouts by Alvarez
Round 1 Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
Round 2 Oct 21, 2010 vs Huerta
Round 1 Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Alvarez 8.1
fighter Poirier 7.9
Great submissions by Alvarez
Round 2 May 06, 2010 vs Neer
Round 2 Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
Round 2 Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Alvarez 8.9
fighter Poirier 8.7
Fast finishes by Alvarez
134 seconds Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
338 seconds Jun 19, 2009 vs Imada
455 seconds Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
May 13, 2017UFC 211
team
VS
team
XX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Alvarez
legend Poirier
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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