UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Poirier vs Diaz

2,052

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
51% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,056

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nate Diaz
A lot taller 183 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Significantly better submission offense 8.6 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Longer reach 193 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better striker 9.3 vs 9.1 Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.3 Almost the same
Advantages for Dustin Poirier
Significantly better takedown defense 8.5 vs 7.9 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly heavier hands 8.1 vs 7.4 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Younger 29 years vs 33 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Stronger takedown offense 8.0 vs 7.8 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Slightly stronger jaw 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Poirier’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Diaz
In 11:58, how much damage will he do? Diaz Poirier
Significant Strikes79
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 108 Significant Strikes in 11:58
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:58
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Poirier on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dustin
Poirier
In 11:58, how much damage will he do? Poirier Diaz
Significant Strikes68
Poirier's excellent striking offense will dominate Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 108 Significant Strikes in 11:58
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Poirier's average takedown offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:58
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Poirier has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Poirier is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Poirier is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.3
fighter Poirier 9.1
Great striking by Diaz
33 strikes Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
46 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Miller
238 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Cerrone

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.8
fighter Poirier 8.0
Great takedowns by Poirier
2 takedowns Aug 31, 2013 vs Koch
1 takedown Nov 12, 2011 vs Garza
5 takedowns Jun 11, 2011 vs Young

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 7.4
fighter Poirier 8.1
Great knockouts by Poirier
Round 1 Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
Round 1 Nov 11, 2010 vs Micklewright
Round 1 Jun 18, 2010 vs Gauthier

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.6
fighter Poirier 7.9
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 2 May 05, 2012 vs Miller
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Round 3 Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Poirier 8.7
Fast finishes by Diaz
158 seconds Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
549 seconds May 05, 2012 vs Miller
267 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Poirier
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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