UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Poirier vs Edgar

2,052

CageRank

WINNER
Edgar

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
61% chance Edgar
WILL WIN

2,131

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Frankie Edgar
Much stronger takedown offense 9.0 vs 8.0 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.3 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 9.0 Almost the same
Advantages for Dustin Poirier
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.5 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better submission offense 7.9 vs 7.2 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Younger 28 years vs 36 years More than 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier hands 8.1 vs 7.7 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Taller 175 cm vs 168 cm Around 5% taller
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Slightly longer reach 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Edgar on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Poirier’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Frankie
Edgar
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Edgar Poirier
Significant Strikes93
Edgar's excellent striking offense will dominate Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Edgar's good takedown offense may be a factor against Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Edgar is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Edgar is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Edgar has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Poirier on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Edgar’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dustin
Poirier
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Poirier Edgar
Significant Strikes75
Poirier's excellent striking offense will dominate Edgar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Poirier's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Edgar's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Poirier has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Poirier is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Poirier is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Edgar 9.1
fighter Poirier 9.1
Great striking by Poirier
44 strikes Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
54 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Koch
77 strikes Jan 01, 2011 vs Grispi

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Edgar 9.0
fighter Poirier 8.0
Great takedowns by Edgar
3 takedowns Aug 28, 2010 vs Penn
1 takedown Apr 10, 2010 vs Penn
1 takedown May 23, 2009 vs Sherk

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Edgar 7.7
fighter Poirier 8.1
Great knockouts by Poirier
Round 1 Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
Round 1 Nov 11, 2010 vs Micklewright
Round 1 Jun 18, 2010 vs Gauthier

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Edgar 7.2
fighter Poirier 7.9
Great submissions by Poirier
Round 1 Dec 15, 2012 vs Brookins
Round 2 Nov 12, 2011 vs Garza
Round 2 Jun 26, 2009 vs Jolly

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Edgar 7.5
fighter Poirier 8.7
Fast finishes by Poirier
294 seconds Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
255 seconds Dec 15, 2012 vs Brookins
534 seconds Jun 26, 2009 vs Jolly
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Edgar
legend Poirier
Read More
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Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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