UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Poirier vs Barboza

2,052

CageRank

WINNER
Barboza

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
50% chance Barboza
WILL WIN

2,053

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Edson Barboza
Significantly heavier hands 9.1 vs 8.1 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Taller 180 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Longer reach 191 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Advantages for Dustin Poirier
Significantly better submission offense 7.9 vs 6.7 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger takedown offense 8.0 vs 7.6 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.6 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 9.0 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Younger 28 years vs 31 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better submission defense 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Barboza on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Poirier’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Edson
Barboza
In 12:11, how much damage will he do? Barboza Poirier
Significant Strikes77
Barboza's excellent striking offense will dominate Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 110 Significant Strikes in 12:11
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Barboza's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:11
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Barboza has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Barboza is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Barboza is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Poirier on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Barboza’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dustin
Poirier
In 12:11, how much damage will he do? Poirier Barboza
Significant Strikes79
Poirier's excellent striking offense will dominate Barboza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 110 Significant Strikes in 12:11
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Poirier's average takedown offense is matched by Barboza's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:11
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Poirier has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Poirier is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Poirier is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Barboza 9.1
fighter Poirier 9.1
Great striking by Poirier
44 strikes Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
54 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Koch
77 strikes Jan 01, 2011 vs Grispi

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Barboza 7.6
fighter Poirier 8.0
Great takedowns by Poirier
2 takedowns Aug 31, 2013 vs Koch
1 takedown Nov 12, 2011 vs Garza
5 takedowns Jun 11, 2011 vs Young

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Barboza 9.1
fighter Poirier 8.1
Great knockouts by Barboza
Round 2 Jul 06, 2013 vs Oliveira
Round 1 Jan 19, 2013 vs Martins
Round 3 Jan 14, 2012 vs Etim

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Barboza 6.7
fighter Poirier 7.9
Great submissions by Poirier
Round 1 Dec 15, 2012 vs Brookins
Round 2 Nov 12, 2011 vs Garza
Round 2 Jun 26, 2009 vs Jolly

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Barboza 8.7
fighter Poirier 8.7
Fast finishes by Poirier
294 seconds Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
255 seconds Dec 15, 2012 vs Brookins
534 seconds Jun 26, 2009 vs Jolly
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Barboza
legend Poirier
Read More
Poirier vs Pettis
Fantasy Cage Match
Barboza vs Nurmagomedov
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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