UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Poirier vs Miller

2,052

CageRank

WINNER
Miller

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
56% chance Miller
WILL WIN

2,097

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jim Miller
Significantly better submission offense 8.9 vs 7.9 Around 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.6 vs 8.0 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.3 Almost the same
Advantages for Dustin Poirier
Better striker 9.1 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly heavier hands 8.1 vs 7.1 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Younger 28 years vs 33 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Longer reach 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Taller 175 cm vs 173 cm Almost the same
Miller on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Poirier’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jim
Miller
In 11:55, how much damage will he do? Miller Poirier
Significant Strikes57
Miller's average striking offense is matched by Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 107 Significant Strikes in 11:55
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Miller's average takedown offense is matched by Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:55
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Miller is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Miller has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Miller is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Poirier on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Miller’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dustin
Poirier
In 11:55, how much damage will he do? Poirier Miller
Significant Strikes67
Poirier's excellent striking offense will dominate Miller's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 107 Significant Strikes in 11:55
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Poirier's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Miller's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 11:55
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Poirier has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Poirier is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Poirier is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Miller 8.4
fighter Poirier 9.1
Great striking by Poirier
44 strikes Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
54 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Koch
77 strikes Jan 01, 2011 vs Grispi

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Miller 8.6
fighter Poirier 8.0
Great takedowns by Miller
1 takedown Jan 20, 2012 vs Guillard
1 takedown Dec 11, 2010 vs Oliveira
5 takedowns Oct 18, 2008 vs Baron

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Miller 7.1
fighter Poirier 8.1
Great knockouts by Poirier
Round 1 Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
Round 1 Nov 11, 2010 vs Micklewright
Round 1 Jun 18, 2010 vs Gauthier

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Miller 8.9
fighter Poirier 7.9
Great submissions by Miller
Round 1 Jan 20, 2012 vs Guillard
Round 1 Dec 11, 2010 vs Oliveira
Round 3 Oct 18, 2008 vs Baron

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Miller 8.7
fighter Poirier 8.7
Fast finishes by Miller
184 seconds Jan 20, 2012 vs Guillard
119 seconds Dec 11, 2010 vs Oliveira
799 seconds Oct 18, 2008 vs Baron
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Miller
legend Poirier
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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