UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Poirier vs Koch

2,052

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Poirier

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
71% chance Poirier
WILL WIN

1,897

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Dustin Poirier
Better striker 9.1 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly stronger jaw 9.0 vs 8.0 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.0 vs 7.4 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.7 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Longer reach 185 cm vs 182 cm Almost the same
Heavier hands 8.1 vs 7.8 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Slightly better submission offense 7.9 vs 7.7 Almost the same
Advantages for Erik Koch
Much harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Taller 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Poirier on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Koch’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dustin
Poirier
In 9:46, how much damage will he do? Poirier Koch
Significant Strikes50
Poirier's excellent striking offense will dominate Koch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 88 Significant Strikes in 9:46
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Poirier's average takedown offense is matched by Koch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:46
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Poirier has a good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Poirier is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Poirier is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Koch on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Poirier’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Erik
Koch
In 9:46, how much damage will he do? Koch Poirier
Significant Strikes50
Koch's average striking offense is matched by Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 88 Significant Strikes in 9:46
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Koch's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:46
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Koch is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Koch is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Koch is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Poirier 9.1
fighter Koch 8.6
Great striking by Poirier
44 strikes Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
54 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Koch
77 strikes Jan 01, 2011 vs Grispi

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Poirier 8.0
fighter Koch 7.4
Great takedowns by Poirier
2 takedowns Aug 31, 2013 vs Koch
1 takedown Nov 12, 2011 vs Garza
5 takedowns Jun 11, 2011 vs Young

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Poirier 8.1
fighter Koch 7.8
Great knockouts by Poirier
Round 1 Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
Round 1 Nov 11, 2010 vs Micklewright
Round 1 Jun 18, 2010 vs Gauthier

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Poirier 7.9
fighter Koch 7.7
Great submissions by Poirier
Round 1 Dec 15, 2012 vs Brookins
Round 2 Nov 12, 2011 vs Garza
Round 2 Jun 26, 2009 vs Jolly

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Poirier 8.7
fighter Koch 8.6
Fast finishes by Poirier
294 seconds Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
255 seconds Dec 15, 2012 vs Brookins
534 seconds Jun 26, 2009 vs Jolly
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 31, 2013UFC 164
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
XDEC
1,9161,971
1,9741,913
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Poirier
legend Koch
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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