UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Poirier vs Ferguson

2,052

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Poirier

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
59% chance Poirier
WILL WIN

1,986

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Dustin Poirier
Significantly better striker 9.1 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission offense 7.9 vs 7.2 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Younger 29 years vs 34 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.9 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Tony Ferguson
Much longer winning streak 10 fights vs 3 fights More than 3.2x longer winning streak; has momentum coming into a fight
A lot taller 183 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Significantly heavier hands 8.8 vs 8.1 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Longer reach 193 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better takedown defense 8.9 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Harder to hit 8.5 vs 8.4 Almost the same
Poirier on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Ferguson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dustin
Poirier
In 10:37, how much damage will he do? Poirier Ferguson
Significant Strikes65
Poirier's excellent striking offense will dominate Ferguson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:37
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Poirier's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Ferguson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:37
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Poirier has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Poirier is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Poirier is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Ferguson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Poirier’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tony
Ferguson
In 10:37, how much damage will he do? Ferguson Poirier
Significant Strikes56
Ferguson's good striking offense may be a factor against Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:37
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Ferguson's average takedown offense is matched by Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:37
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Ferguson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Ferguson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Ferguson is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Poirier 9.1
fighter Ferguson 8.6
Great striking by Poirier
44 strikes Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
54 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Koch
77 strikes Jan 01, 2011 vs Grispi

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Poirier 8.0
fighter Ferguson 8.1
Great takedowns by Ferguson
1 takedown Dec 03, 2011 vs Edwards
2 takedowns Jun 04, 2011 vs Nijem

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Poirier 8.1
fighter Ferguson 8.8
Great knockouts by Ferguson
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Riley
Round 1 Jun 04, 2011 vs Nijem
Round 4 Sep 25, 2010 vs Jardine

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Poirier 7.9
fighter Ferguson 7.2
Great submissions by Poirier
Round 1 Dec 15, 2012 vs Brookins
Round 2 Nov 12, 2011 vs Garza
Round 2 Jun 26, 2009 vs Jolly

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Poirier 8.7
fighter Ferguson 8.8
Fast finishes by Ferguson
112 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs Rio
300 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Riley
1055 seconds Sep 25, 2010 vs Jardine
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Poirier
legend Ferguson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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