UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Poirier vs Melendez

2,052

CageRank

WINNER
Melendez

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
75% chance Melendez
WILL WIN

2,243

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Gilbert Melendez
Much harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger takedown offense 8.9 vs 8.0 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better striker 9.3 vs 9.1 Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 9.3 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Slightly heavier hands 8.3 vs 8.1 Almost the same
Advantages for Dustin Poirier
Much better submission offense 7.9 vs 6.5 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Younger 28 years vs 35 years 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Melendez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Poirier’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gilbert
Melendez
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Melendez Poirier
Significant Strikes100
Melendez's excellent striking offense will dominate Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Melendez's good takedown offense may be a factor against Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Melendez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Melendez is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Melendez has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Poirier on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Melendez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dustin
Poirier
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Poirier Melendez
Significant Strikes77
Poirier's excellent striking offense will dominate Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Poirier's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Melendez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Poirier has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Poirier is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Poirier is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Melendez 9.3
fighter Poirier 9.1
Great striking by Melendez
96 strikes Oct 19, 2013 vs Sanchez
33 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
69 strikes Apr 17, 2010 vs Aoki

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Melendez 8.9
fighter Poirier 8.0
Great takedowns by Melendez
1 takedown Oct 19, 2013 vs Sanchez
5 takedowns May 19, 2012 vs Thomson
2 takedowns Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Melendez 8.3
fighter Poirier 8.1
Great knockouts by Melendez
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Kawajiri
Round 3 Aug 15, 2009 vs Ishida
Round 2 Oct 10, 2003 vs Palling

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Melendez 6.5
fighter Poirier 7.9
Great submissions by Poirier
Round 1 Dec 15, 2012 vs Brookins
Round 2 Nov 12, 2011 vs Garza
Round 2 Jun 26, 2009 vs Jolly

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Melendez 8.3
fighter Poirier 8.7
Fast finishes by Poirier
294 seconds Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
255 seconds Dec 15, 2012 vs Brookins
534 seconds Jun 26, 2009 vs Jolly
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Melendez
legend Poirier
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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