UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Poirier vs Nurmagomedov

2,052

CageRank

WINNER
Nurmagomedov

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
69% chance Nurmagomedov
WILL WIN

2,192

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Khabib Nurmagomedov
Much stronger takedown offense 9.0 vs 8.0 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Taller 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Dustin Poirier
Significantly better striker 9.1 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Longer reach 185 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier hands 8.1 vs 7.7 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Stronger jaw 9.0 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Nurmagomedov on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Poirier’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Khabib
Nurmagomedov
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Nurmagomedov Poirier
Significant Strikes80
Nurmagomedov's good striking offense may be a factor against Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Nurmagomedov's good takedown offense may be a factor against Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nurmagomedov has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Poirier on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nurmagomedov’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dustin
Poirier
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Poirier Nurmagomedov
Significant Strikes79
Poirier's excellent striking offense will dominate Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Poirier's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Poirier has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Poirier is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Poirier is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.6
fighter Poirier 9.1
Great striking by Poirier
44 strikes Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
54 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Koch
77 strikes Jan 01, 2011 vs Grispi

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 9.0
fighter Poirier 8.0
Great takedowns by Nurmagomedov
5 takedowns Sep 21, 2013 vs Healy
21 takedowns May 25, 2013 vs Trujillo
3 takedowns Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.7
fighter Poirier 8.1
Great knockouts by Poirier
Round 1 Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
Round 1 Nov 11, 2010 vs Micklewright
Round 1 Jun 18, 2010 vs Gauthier

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.8
fighter Poirier 7.9
Great submissions by Poirier
Round 1 Dec 15, 2012 vs Brookins
Round 2 Nov 12, 2011 vs Garza
Round 2 Jun 26, 2009 vs Jolly

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.4
fighter Poirier 8.7
Fast finishes by Poirier
294 seconds Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
255 seconds Dec 15, 2012 vs Brookins
534 seconds Jun 26, 2009 vs Jolly
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nurmagomedov
legend Poirier
Read More
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Nurmagomedov vs McGregor
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Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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