UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Poirier vs Brookins

2,052

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Poirier

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
79% chance Poirier
WILL WIN

1,826

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Dustin Poirier
Much heavier hands 8.1 vs 7.0 More than 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.2 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better striker 9.1 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission defense 8.7 vs 8.1 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.8 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Harder to hit 8.4 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Stronger jaw 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Younger 28 years vs 32 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Jonathan Brookins
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Taller 183 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission offense 8.0 vs 7.9 Almost the same
Slightly longer reach 188 cm vs 185 cm Almost the same
Poirier on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Brookins’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dustin
Poirier
In 10:04, how much damage will he do? Poirier Brookins
Significant Strikes68
Poirier's excellent striking offense will dominate Brookins's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 91 Significant Strikes in 10:04
Excellent
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Poirier's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Brookins's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:04
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Poirier has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Poirier has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Poirier is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Brookins on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Poirier’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jonathan
Brookins
In 10:04, how much damage will he do? Brookins Poirier
Significant Strikes56
Brookins's good striking offense may be a factor against Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 91 Significant Strikes in 10:04
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Brookins's average takedown offense is matched by Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:04
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Brookins is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Brookins has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Brookins is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Poirier 9.1
fighter Brookins 8.7
Great striking by Poirier
44 strikes Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
54 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Koch
77 strikes Jan 01, 2011 vs Grispi

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Poirier 8.0
fighter Brookins 8.7
Great takedowns by Brookins
1 takedown Feb 15, 2012 vs Rocha
3 takedowns Dec 04, 2010 vs Johnson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Poirier 8.1
fighter Brookins 7.0
Great knockouts by Poirier
Round 1 Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
Round 1 Nov 11, 2010 vs Micklewright
Round 1 Jun 18, 2010 vs Gauthier

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Poirier 7.9
fighter Brookins 8.1
Great submissions by Brookins
Round 2 Sep 26, 2009 vs Palomino
Round 1 Apr 03, 2009 vs Ledbetter
Round 2 Jun 30, 2007 vs Jabouin

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Poirier 8.7
fighter Brookins 8.2
Fast finishes by Poirier
294 seconds Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
255 seconds Dec 15, 2012 vs Brookins
534 seconds Jun 26, 2009 vs Jolly
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 15, 2012TUF 16 Finale
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
DECX
1,9201,851
1,9611,811
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Poirier
legend Brookins
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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