UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Poirier vs Holloway

2,052

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Poirier

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
71% chance Poirier
WILL WIN

1,900

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Dustin Poirier
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.3 More than 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better submission offense 7.9 vs 6.8 Around 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better striker 9.1 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly better takedown defense 8.5 vs 7.7 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.0 vs 7.5 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Longer reach 185 cm vs 177 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.9 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier hands 8.1 vs 7.9 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Better submission defense 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger jaw 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Max Holloway
Taller 180 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Younger 26 years vs 29 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Poirier on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Holloway’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dustin
Poirier
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Poirier Holloway
Significant Strikes96
Poirier's excellent striking offense will dominate Holloway's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Poirier's average takedown offense may be a factor against Holloway's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Poirier has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Poirier is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Poirier has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Holloway on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Poirier’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Max
Holloway
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Holloway Poirier
Significant Strikes78
Holloway's average striking offense is matched by Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Holloway's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Poirier's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Holloway is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Holloway is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Holloway is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Poirier 9.1
fighter Holloway 8.6
Great striking by Poirier
44 strikes Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
54 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Koch
77 strikes Jan 01, 2011 vs Grispi

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Poirier 8.0
fighter Holloway 7.5
Great takedowns by Poirier
2 takedowns Aug 31, 2013 vs Koch
1 takedown Nov 12, 2011 vs Garza
5 takedowns Jun 11, 2011 vs Young

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Poirier 8.1
fighter Holloway 7.9
Great knockouts by Poirier
Round 1 Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
Round 1 Nov 11, 2010 vs Micklewright
Round 1 Jun 18, 2010 vs Gauthier

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Poirier 7.9
fighter Holloway 6.8
Great submissions by Poirier
Round 1 Dec 15, 2012 vs Brookins
Round 2 Nov 12, 2011 vs Garza
Round 2 Jun 26, 2009 vs Jolly

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Poirier 8.7
fighter Holloway 7.3
Fast finishes by Poirier
294 seconds Dec 28, 2013 vs Brandao
255 seconds Dec 15, 2012 vs Brookins
534 seconds Jun 26, 2009 vs Jolly
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
February 4, 2012UFC 143
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
R2 SUBX
1,9691,737
1,9901,716
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Poirier
legend Holloway
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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