UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Belcher vs Palhares

1,988

CageRank

WINNER
Palhares

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
66% chance Palhares
WILL WIN

2,100

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Rousimar Palhares
Much better submission offense 9.7 vs 8.2 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.6 vs 8.8 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.3 vs 7.5 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Advantages for Alan Belcher
Much heavier hands 8.0 vs 6.3 More than 25% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.7 vs 7.5 More than 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
A lot taller 188 cm vs 173 cm Around 10% taller
Significantly stronger jaw 9.0 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Longer reach 191 cm vs 180 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.0 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Younger 33 years vs 37 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier 184 lbs vs 169 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Palhares on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Belcher’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Rousimar
Palhares
In 9:46, how much damage will he do? Palhares Belcher
Significant Strikes22
Palhares's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Belcher's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 88 Significant Strikes in 9:46
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Palhares's average takedown offense is matched by Belcher's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:46
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Palhares is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Palhares has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Palhares is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Belcher on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Palhares’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alan
Belcher
In 9:46, how much damage will he do? Belcher Palhares
Significant Strikes42
Belcher's good striking offense is matched by Palhares's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 88 Significant Strikes in 9:46
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Belcher's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Palhares's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:46
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Belcher has a good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Belcher has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Belcher is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Palhares 7.5
fighter Belcher 8.7
Great striking by Belcher
20 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Palhares
27 strikes May 08, 2010 vs Cote
9 strikes Jan 17, 2009 vs Kang

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Palhares 8.3
fighter Belcher 7.5
Great takedowns by Palhares
2 takedowns Aug 27, 2011 vs Miller
1 takedown Dec 12, 2009 vs Linhares
7 takedowns Jan 17, 2009 vs Horn

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Palhares 6.3
fighter Belcher 8.0
Great knockouts by Belcher
Round 1 May 05, 2012 vs Palhares
Round 1 Dec 12, 2009 vs Gouveia
Round 2 Oct 20, 2007 vs Starnes

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Palhares 9.7
fighter Belcher 8.2
Great submissions by Palhares
Round 1 Oct 09, 2013 vs Pierce
Round 1 Mar 27, 2010 vs Drwal
Round 2 Dec 12, 2009 vs Linhares

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Palhares 9.6
fighter Belcher 8.8
Fast finishes by Palhares
31 seconds Oct 09, 2013 vs Pierce
404 seconds Mar 03, 2011 vs Branch
45 seconds Mar 27, 2010 vs Drwal
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
May 5, 2012UFC on Fox 3
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XR1 SUB
2,0302,059
2,0842,005
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Palhares
legend Belcher
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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