UFC fight predictions and analysis
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CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Belcher vs Day

1,988

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Belcher

prediction

BY KO ROUND 1

prediction
83% chance Belcher
WILL WIN

1,712

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Alan Belcher
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 7.5 More than 25% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Much stronger jaw 9.0 vs 7.5 Around 20% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly better takedown defense 8.4 vs 7.6 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly fast finishes 8.8 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly longer reach 191 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.4 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Taller 188 cm vs 183 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission offense 8.2 vs 7.6 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Heavier hands 8.0 vs 7.5 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Younger 33 years vs 38 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Slightly better striker 8.7 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Advantages for Jason Day
Stronger takedown offense 7.9 vs 7.5 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Belcher on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Day’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alan
Belcher
In 4:32, how much damage will he do? Belcher Day
Significant Strikes25
Belcher's good striking offense may be a factor against Day's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 41 Significant Strikes in 4:32
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Belcher's below average takedown offense is matched by Day's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 2 Takedowns in 4:32
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Belcher has a very good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Belcher has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Belcher is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Day on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Belcher’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jason
Day
In 4:32, how much damage will he do? Day Belcher
Significant Strikes21
Day's average striking offense is matched by Belcher's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 41 Significant Strikes in 4:32
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Day's average takedown offense is matched by Belcher's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 2 Takedowns in 4:32
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Day is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Day is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Day is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Belcher 8.7
fighter Day 8.6
Great striking by Belcher
20 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Palhares
27 strikes May 08, 2010 vs Cote
9 strikes Jan 17, 2009 vs Kang

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Belcher 8.0
fighter Day 7.5
Great knockouts by Belcher
Round 1 May 05, 2012 vs Palhares
Round 1 Dec 12, 2009 vs Gouveia
Round 2 Oct 20, 2007 vs Starnes

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Belcher 8.2
fighter Day 7.6
Great submissions by Belcher
Round 1 Sep 17, 2011 vs MacDonald
Round 2 May 08, 2010 vs Cote
Round 2 Jan 17, 2009 vs Kang

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Belcher 8.8
fighter Day 7.9
Fast finishes by Belcher
258 seconds May 05, 2012 vs Palhares
505 seconds May 08, 2010 vs Cote
576 seconds Jan 17, 2009 vs Kang
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
April 19, 2008UFC 83
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
XR1 KO
1,8601,924
1,8191,965
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Belcher
legend Day
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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