UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Davis vs Diaz

1,772

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
84% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,056

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nate Diaz
Much better submission offense 8.6 vs 7.2 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.6 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better striker 9.3 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly younger 32 years vs 44 years More than 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly longer reach 193 cm vs 178 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.6 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.7 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
A lot taller 183 cm vs 173 cm More than 5% taller
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier hands 7.4 vs 7.2 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Advantages for Marcus Davis
Significantly better takedown defense 8.5 vs 7.9 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 7.8 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Davis’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Diaz
In 9:50, how much damage will he do? Diaz Davis
Significant Strikes60
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Davis's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 89 Significant Strikes in 9:50
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Davis's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:50
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Davis on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Marcus
Davis
In 9:50, how much damage will he do? Davis Diaz
Significant Strikes40
Davis's average striking offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 89 Significant Strikes in 9:50
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Davis's average takedown offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:50
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Davis is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Davis is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Davis has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.3
fighter Davis 8.4
Great striking by Diaz
33 strikes Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
46 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Miller
238 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Cerrone

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.8
fighter Davis 8.1
Great takedowns by Davis
1 takedown Oct 18, 2008 vs Kelly
1 takedown Sep 08, 2007 vs Taylor
1 takedown Dec 13, 2006 vs Carter

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 7.4
fighter Davis 7.2
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
Round 1 Mar 27, 2010 vs Markham
Round 1 May 05, 2006 vs Rael

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.6
fighter Davis 7.2
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 2 May 05, 2012 vs Miller
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Round 3 Aug 28, 2010 vs Davis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Davis 7.6
Fast finishes by Diaz
158 seconds Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
549 seconds May 05, 2012 vs Miller
267 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Gomi
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 28, 2010UFC 118
team
VS
team
XR3 SUB
XR1 SUB
1,9261,932
1,8771,981
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Davis
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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