UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Thomas Brown vs Faber

1,912

CageRank

WINNER
Faber

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
81% chance Faber
WILL WIN

2,161

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Urijah Faber
Much better submission offense 9.5 vs 7.8 Around 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.6 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.0 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.1 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.9 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.5 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Younger 37 years vs 41 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Mike Thomas Brown
Heavier hands 7.3 vs 6.8 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Heavier 144 lbs vs 134 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Faber on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Thomas Brown’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Urijah
Faber
In 10:50, how much damage will he do? Faber Thomas Brown
Significant Strikes51
Faber's average striking offense is matched by Thomas Brown's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 98 Significant Strikes in 10:50
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Faber's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Thomas Brown's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:50
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Faber is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Faber has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Faber is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Thomas Brown on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Faber’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Mike
Thomas Brown
In 10:50, how much damage will he do? Thomas Brown Faber
Significant Strikes36
Thomas Brown's average striking offense won't be a factor against Faber's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 98 Significant Strikes in 10:50
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Thomas Brown's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Faber's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:50
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Thomas Brown is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Thomas Brown is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Thomas Brown is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Faber 8.6
fighter Thomas Brown 8.5
Great striking by Faber
29 strikes Dec 14, 2013 vs McDonald
54 strikes Aug 17, 2013 vs Alcantara
36 strikes Nov 19, 2011 vs Bowles

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Faber 8.4
fighter Thomas Brown 8.3
Great takedowns by Faber
1 takedown Dec 14, 2013 vs McDonald
4 takedowns Aug 17, 2013 vs Alcantara
2 takedowns Jan 10, 2010 vs Assuncao

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Faber 6.8
fighter Thomas Brown 7.3
Great knockouts by Thomas Brown
Round 1 Sep 30, 2010 vs Province
Round 1 Nov 05, 2008 vs Faber
Round 1 Nov 24, 2007 vs Oroz

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Faber 9.5
fighter Thomas Brown 7.8
Great submissions by Faber
Round 2 Dec 14, 2013 vs McDonald
Round 3 Jan 10, 2010 vs Assuncao
Round 2 Dec 12, 2007 vs Curran

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Faber 8.7
fighter Thomas Brown 8.2
Fast finishes by Faber
502 seconds Dec 14, 2013 vs McDonald
387 seconds Nov 19, 2011 vs Bowles
574 seconds Dec 12, 2007 vs Curran
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
June 7, 2009WEC 41
team
VS
team
R5 DECX
R2 KOX
2,0712,068
2,1202,019
November 5, 2008WEC 36
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XR2 SUB
1,9742,120
2,0442,050
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Faber
legend Thomas Brown
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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