UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Gonzaga vs dos Santos

1,950

CageRank

WINNER
dos Santos

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
69% chance dos Santos
WILL WIN

2,091

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Junior dos Santos
Better striker 9.6 vs 8.6 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly heavier hands 9.2 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Harder to hit 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 9.1 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Taller 193 cm vs 188 cm Around 5% taller
Stronger jaw 9.4 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Younger 33 years vs 38 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Gabriel Gonzaga
Much better submission offense 8.2 vs 6.9 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 7.7 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better takedown defense 9.7 vs 9.0 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Heavier 258 lbs vs 239 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Fast finishes 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
dos Santos on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gonzaga’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Junior
dos Santos
In 11:30, how much damage will he do? dos Santos Gonzaga
Significant Strikes75
dos Santos's excellent striking offense will dominate Gonzaga's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 103 Significant Strikes in 11:30
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
dos Santos's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Gonzaga's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:30
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
dos Santos has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
dos Santos is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
dos Santos is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Gonzaga on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against dos Santos’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gabriel
Gonzaga
In 11:30, how much damage will he do? Gonzaga dos Santos
Significant Strikes42
Gonzaga's average striking offense won't be a factor against dos Santos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 103 Significant Strikes in 11:30
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Gonzaga's average takedown offense won't be a factor against dos Santos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:30
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gonzaga has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gonzaga has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gonzaga is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter dos Santos 9.6
fighter Gonzaga 8.6
Great striking by dos Santos
59 strikes May 26, 2012 vs Mir
8 strikes Nov 12, 2011 vs Velasquez
70 strikes Sep 19, 2009 vs Filipovic

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter dos Santos 7.7
fighter Gonzaga 8.5
Great takedowns by Gonzaga
3 takedowns Jan 19, 2013 vs Rothwell
2 takedowns Jan 14, 2012 vs Oliveira
1 takedown Apr 21, 2007 vs Filipovic

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter dos Santos 9.2
fighter Gonzaga 8.3
Great knockouts by dos Santos
Round 2 May 26, 2012 vs Mir
Round 1 Nov 12, 2011 vs Velasquez
Round 1 Oct 25, 2008 vs Werdum

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter dos Santos 6.9
fighter Gonzaga 8.2
Great submissions by Gonzaga
Round 2 Jan 19, 2013 vs Rothwell
Round 1 Jan 14, 2012 vs Oliveira
Round 1 Jul 05, 2008 vs McCully

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter dos Santos 8.6
fighter Gonzaga 9.0
Fast finishes by Gonzaga
361 seconds Jan 19, 2013 vs Rothwell
147 seconds Aug 29, 2009 vs Tuchscherer
291 seconds Apr 21, 2007 vs Filipovic
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
XR2 KO
1,9311,971
1,8872,015
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend dos Santos
legend Gonzaga
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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