UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Jensen vs Leites

1,900

CageRank

WINNER
Leites

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
78% chance Leites
WILL WIN

2,122

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Thales Leites
Much better takedown defense 9.2 vs 7.7 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much heavier 184 lbs vs 175 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Much stronger takedown offense 9.1 vs 7.7 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 8.5 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.1 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
A lot taller 185 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Longer reach 198 cm vs 193 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Stronger jaw 9.4 vs 8.9 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Younger 35 years vs 39 years More than 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Ryan Jensen
Heavier hands 7.8 vs 7.1 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.1 vs 7.9 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Fast finishes 9.1 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Leites on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Jensen’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Thales
Leites
In 8:33, how much damage will he do? Leites Jensen
Significant Strikes25
Leites's below average striking offense won't be a factor against Jensen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 77 Significant Strikes in 8:33
Below average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Leites's good takedown offense may be a factor against Jensen's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:33
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Leites is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Leites has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Leites is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Jensen on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Leites’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ryan
Jensen
In 8:33, how much damage will he do? Jensen Leites
Significant Strikes21
Jensen's average striking offense won't be a factor against Leites's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 77 Significant Strikes in 8:33
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Jensen's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Leites's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:33
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Jensen is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Jensen has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Jensen is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Leites 7.9
fighter Jensen 8.1
Great striking by Jensen
3 strikes May 29, 2010 vs Forbes
9 strikes Sep 16, 2009 vs Steinbeiss

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Leites 9.1
fighter Jensen 7.7
Great takedowns by Leites
3 takedowns Nov 16, 2013 vs Herman
5 takedowns Aug 03, 2013 vs Watson
3 takedowns Aug 25, 2007 vs Jensen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Leites 7.1
fighter Jensen 7.8
Great knockouts by Jensen
Round 1 Jul 26, 2008 vs Praschak
Round 1 Jun 20, 2008 vs Whitesel
Round 1 Aug 17, 2002 vs Stamp

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Leites 8.6
fighter Jensen 8.4
Great submissions by Leites
Round 2 Oct 29, 2010 vs Troeng
Round 1 Aug 25, 2007 vs Jensen
Round 3 Jul 02, 2005 vs Machado

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Leites 8.8
fighter Jensen 9.1
Fast finishes by Jensen
192 seconds Jul 27, 2013 vs Moreno
66 seconds May 29, 2010 vs Forbes
56 seconds Aug 17, 2002 vs Stamp
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 25, 2007UFC 74
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XR2 SUB
1,8921,919
1,8461,965
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Leites
legend Jensen
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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