UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Santos vs Nakamura

1,724

CageRank

WINNER
Nakamura

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
71% chance Nakamura
WILL WIN

1,883

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Kazuhiro Nakamura
Much stronger takedown offense 8.6 vs 7.8 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly stronger jaw 8.8 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.1 vs 8.3 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Harder to hit 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission offense 6.9 vs 6.6 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better submission defense 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier 184 lbs vs 169 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Taller 180 cm vs 178 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Evangelista Santos
Significantly fast finishes 8.0 vs 7.4 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly longer reach 193 cm vs 178 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier hands 7.9 vs 7.6 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.5 vs 8.3 Almost the same
Better takedown defense 8.6 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Nakamura on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Santos’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kazuhiro
Nakamura
In 12:39, how much damage will he do? Nakamura Santos
Significant Strikes55
Nakamura's average striking offense is matched by Santos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 114 Significant Strikes in 12:39
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Nakamura's average takedown offense is matched by Santos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:39
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nakamura is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Nakamura is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nakamura is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Santos on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nakamura’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Evangelista
Santos
In 12:39, how much damage will he do? Santos Nakamura
Significant Strikes52
Santos's average striking offense is matched by Nakamura's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 114 Significant Strikes in 12:39
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Santos's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Nakamura's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:39
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Santos is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Santos is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Santos is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Nakamura 8.3
fighter Santos 8.5
Great striking by Santos
15 strikes Jun 16, 2010 vs Zaromskis
14 strikes Sep 10, 2006 vs Nishijima

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Nakamura 8.7
fighter Santos 7.8
Great takedowns by Nakamura
3 takedowns Jul 10, 2010 vs Amoussou
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2005 vs Kondo
4 takedowns Aug 15, 2004 vs Bustamante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Nakamura 7.6
fighter Santos 7.9
Great knockouts by Santos
Round 1 Jun 16, 2010 vs Zaromskis
Round 2 Nov 26, 2005 vs Materla
Round 2 Sep 13, 2003 vs Lopes

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Nakamura 6.9
fighter Santos 6.6
Great submissions by Nakamura
Round 3 Nov 24, 2013 vs Sakuragi
Round 1 Jul 01, 2006 vs Santos
Round 1 May 23, 2004 vs Arrab

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Nakamura 7.4
fighter Santos 8.0
Fast finishes by Santos
158 seconds Jun 16, 2010 vs Zaromskis
383 seconds Nov 26, 2005 vs Materla
223 seconds Jul 09, 2005 vs Annan
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XDEC
1,7881,842
1,7451,884
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Nakamura
legend Santos
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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