UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Santos vs Diaz

1,724

CageRank

WINNER
Diaz

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
92% chance Diaz
WILL WIN

2,151

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Better striker 9.7 vs 8.5 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much stronger jaw 9.8 vs 7.9 Around 25% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Much better submission offense 8.0 vs 6.6 More than 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 8.3 Around 20% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
A lot taller 185 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Significantly fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.5 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier hands 8.4 vs 7.9 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Younger 34 years vs 39 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Advantages for Evangelista Santos
Stronger takedown offense 7.8 vs 7.6 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Harder to hit 8.5 vs 8.4 Almost the same
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Santos’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 8:18, how much damage will he do? Diaz Santos
Significant Strikes60
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Santos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 75 Significant Strikes in 8:18
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Santos's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:18
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Santos on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Evangelista
Santos
In 8:18, how much damage will he do? Santos Diaz
Significant Strikes41
Santos's average striking offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 75 Significant Strikes in 8:18
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Santos's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:18
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Santos is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Santos is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Santos is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Diaz 9.7
fighter Santos 8.5
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Diaz 7.6
fighter Santos 7.8
Great takedowns by Santos
1 takedown Sep 10, 2006 vs Nishijima

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Diaz 8.4
fighter Santos 7.9
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
Round 1 Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
Round 1 Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Diaz 8.0
fighter Santos 6.6
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 1 May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
Round 3 Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
Round 3 Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Diaz 8.7
fighter Santos 8.0
Fast finishes by Diaz
297 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
278 seconds Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
280 seconds Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR2 SUB
XR1 KO
1,7792,132
1,7672,144
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Diaz
legend Santos
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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