UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Nascimento vs Palhares

1,710

CageRank

WINNER
Palhares

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
90% chance Palhares
WILL WIN

2,100

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Rousimar Palhares
Fast finishes 9.6 vs 7.5 More than 25% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better submission offense 9.7 vs 7.7 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much better takedown defense 9.0 vs 7.9 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission defense 9.3 vs 8.4 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Fabio Nascimento
Much heavier 184 lbs vs 169 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better striker 8.5 vs 7.5 Around 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier hands 7.0 vs 6.3 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Taller 178 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% taller
Palhares on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nascimento’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Rousimar
Palhares
In 5:17, how much damage will he do? Palhares Nascimento
Significant Strikes15
Palhares's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Nascimento's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 48 Significant Strikes in 5:17
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Palhares's average takedown offense is matched by Nascimento's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:17
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Palhares is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Palhares has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Palhares is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Nascimento on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Palhares’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Fabio
Nascimento
In 5:17, how much damage will he do? Nascimento Palhares
Significant Strikes21
Nascimento's average striking offense won't be a factor against Palhares's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 48 Significant Strikes in 5:17
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Nascimento's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Palhares's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:17
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nascimento is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Nascimento is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nascimento is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Palhares 8.3
fighter Nascimento 8.2
Great takedowns by Palhares
2 takedowns Aug 27, 2011 vs Miller
1 takedown Dec 12, 2009 vs Linhares
7 takedowns Jan 17, 2009 vs Horn

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Palhares 6.3
fighter Nascimento 7.0
Great knockouts by Nascimento
Round 2 Aug 04, 2007 vs Silva
Round 3 Oct 07, 2006 vs Arinelli
Round 1 Oct 21, 2005 vs Gaze

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Palhares 9.7
fighter Nascimento 7.7
Great submissions by Palhares
Round 1 Oct 09, 2013 vs Pierce
Round 1 Mar 27, 2010 vs Drwal
Round 2 Dec 12, 2009 vs Linhares

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Palhares 9.6
fighter Nascimento 7.5
Fast finishes by Palhares
31 seconds Oct 09, 2013 vs Pierce
404 seconds Mar 03, 2011 vs Branch
45 seconds Mar 27, 2010 vs Drwal
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
R1 KOX
1,7761,724
1,7191,782
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Palhares
legend Nascimento
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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