UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Koch vs Oliveira

1,897

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Koch

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
65% chance Koch
WILL WIN

1,792

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Erik Koch
Much harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly fast finishes 8.6 vs 7.8 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly heavier hands 7.8 vs 6.9 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better striker 8.6 vs 8.1 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Taller 178 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% taller
Younger 29 years vs 35 years More than 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 8.7 vs 8.2 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission offense 7.7 vs 7.4 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger jaw 8.0 vs 7.6 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Slightly better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Advantages for Rafaello Oliveira
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.0 vs 7.4 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better takedown defense 8.7 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Koch on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Oliveira’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Erik
Koch
In 8:20, how much damage will he do? Koch Oliveira
Significant Strikes47
Koch's average striking offense may be a factor against Oliveira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 75 Significant Strikes in 8:20
Average
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Koch's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Oliveira's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:20
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Koch has a chance to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Koch is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Koch is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Oliveira on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Koch’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Rafaello
Oliveira
In 8:20, how much damage will he do? Oliveira Koch
Significant Strikes24
Oliveira's average striking offense won't be a factor against Koch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 75 Significant Strikes in 8:20
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Oliveira's average takedown offense is matched by Koch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:20
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Oliveira is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Oliveira is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Oliveira is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Koch 8.6
fighter Oliveira 8.1
Great striking by Koch
40 strikes Sep 17, 2011 vs Brookins
4 strikes Mar 19, 2011 vs Assuncao
14 strikes Jun 20, 2010 vs Casimir

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Koch 7.4
fighter Oliveira 8.0
Great takedowns by Oliveira
4 takedowns Jul 07, 2012 vs Izquierdo
6 takedowns Jan 02, 2010 vs Gunderson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Koch 7.8
fighter Oliveira 6.9
Great knockouts by Koch
Round 1 Mar 19, 2011 vs Assuncao
Round 1 Nov 11, 2010 vs Rivera
Round 1 Jun 02, 2007 vs Combs

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Koch 7.7
fighter Oliveira 7.4
Great submissions by Koch
Round 1 Jun 20, 2010 vs Casimir
Round 2 Apr 17, 2009 vs Ahrens
Round 1 Apr 05, 2008 vs Pearson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Koch 8.6
fighter Oliveira 7.8
Fast finishes by Koch
152 seconds Mar 19, 2011 vs Assuncao
181 seconds Jun 20, 2010 vs Casimir
180 seconds Apr 05, 2008 vs Pearson
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
February 22, 2014UFC 170
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Koch
legend Oliveira
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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