UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Koch vs Assuncao

1,897

CageRank

WINNER
Assuncao

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
76% chance Assuncao
WILL WIN

2,100

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Raphael Assuncao
Much stronger takedown offense 8.2 vs 7.4 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better takedown defense 9.2 vs 8.5 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger jaw 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Puts up a fight 9.3 vs 8.7 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better striker 8.8 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission defense 9.2 vs 9.0 Almost the same
Advantages for Erik Koch
Much heavier hands 7.8 vs 6.9 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 8.6 vs 7.8 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
A lot taller 178 cm vs 165 cm Around 10% taller
Longer reach 182 cm vs 171 cm More than 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Younger 28 years vs 34 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier 155 lbs vs 134 lbs More than 15% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Assuncao on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Koch’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Raphael
Assuncao
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Assuncao Koch
Significant Strikes65
Assuncao's good striking offense is matched by Koch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Assuncao's average takedown offense is matched by Koch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Assuncao is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Assuncao is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Assuncao has a good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Koch on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Assuncao’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Erik
Koch
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Koch Assuncao
Significant Strikes57
Koch's average striking offense won't be a factor against Assuncao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Koch's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Assuncao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Koch is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Koch is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Koch is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Assuncao 8.8
fighter Koch 8.6
Great striking by Assuncao
57 strikes Dec 08, 2012 vs Easton
53 strikes Aug 27, 2011 vs Eduardo
47 strikes Nov 11, 2010 vs Davis

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Assuncao 8.2
fighter Koch 7.4
Great takedowns by Assuncao
3 takedowns Aug 27, 2011 vs Eduardo
4 takedowns Nov 11, 2010 vs Davis
2 takedowns Apr 05, 2009 vs Massouh

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Assuncao 6.9
fighter Koch 7.8
Great knockouts by Koch
Round 1 Mar 19, 2011 vs Assuncao
Round 1 Nov 11, 2010 vs Rivera
Round 1 Jun 02, 2007 vs Combs

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Assuncao 7.7
fighter Koch 7.7
Great submissions by Assuncao
Round 2 Jun 08, 2013 vs Lee
Round 3 Oct 14, 2006 vs Birdsley
Round 2 Feb 18, 2006 vs Lauzon

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Assuncao 7.8
fighter Koch 8.6
Fast finishes by Koch
152 seconds Mar 19, 2011 vs Assuncao
181 seconds Jun 20, 2010 vs Casimir
180 seconds Apr 05, 2008 vs Pearson
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
March 19, 2011UFC 128
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
XDEC
1,9251,949
1,9781,895
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Assuncao
legend Koch
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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