UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Koch vs Rivera

1,897

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Koch

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
54% chance Koch
WILL WIN

1,870

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Erik Koch
Much better submission offense 7.7 vs 6.5 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better takedown defense 8.5 vs 7.8 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Significantly better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.3 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Younger 29 years vs 36 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Fast finishes 8.6 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Heavier 155 lbs vs 134 lbs More than 15% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Taller 178 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% taller
Longer reach 182 cm vs 178 cm Almost the same
Better striker 8.6 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Puts up a fight 8.7 vs 8.5 Almost the same
Advantages for Francisco Rivera
Significantly heavier hands 8.5 vs 7.8 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger takedown offense 7.8 vs 7.4 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Stronger jaw 8.4 vs 8.0 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Koch on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rivera’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Erik
Koch
In 9:46, how much damage will he do? Koch Rivera
Significant Strikes47
Koch's average striking offense is matched by Rivera's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 88 Significant Strikes in 9:46
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Koch's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Rivera's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:46
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Koch is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Koch has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Koch is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Rivera on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Koch’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Francisco
Rivera
In 9:46, how much damage will he do? Rivera Koch
Significant Strikes36
Rivera's average striking offense won't be a factor against Koch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 88 Significant Strikes in 9:46
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Rivera's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Koch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:46
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rivera has a good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Rivera is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rivera is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Koch 8.6
fighter Rivera 8.5
Great striking by Koch
40 strikes Sep 17, 2011 vs Brookins
4 strikes Mar 19, 2011 vs Assuncao
14 strikes Jun 20, 2010 vs Casimir

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Koch 7.4
fighter Rivera 7.8
Great takedowns by Rivera
2 takedowns Feb 02, 2013 vs Figueroa

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Koch 7.8
fighter Rivera 8.5
Great knockouts by Rivera
Round 2 Nov 06, 2013 vs Roop
Round 2 Feb 02, 2013 vs Figueroa
Round 1 Mar 09, 2012 vs Duarte

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Koch 7.7
fighter Rivera 6.5
Great submissions by Koch
Round 1 Jun 20, 2010 vs Casimir
Round 2 Apr 17, 2009 vs Ahrens
Round 1 Apr 05, 2008 vs Pearson

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Koch 8.6
fighter Rivera 8.3
Fast finishes by Koch
152 seconds Mar 19, 2011 vs Assuncao
181 seconds Jun 20, 2010 vs Casimir
180 seconds Apr 05, 2008 vs Pearson
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
November 11, 2010WEC 52
team
VS
team
R1 KOX
R2 SUBX
1,9011,697
1,9251,673
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Koch
legend Rivera
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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