UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Koch vs Pearson

1,897

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Koch

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
81% chance Koch
WILL WIN

1,641

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Erik Koch
Much heavier hands 7.8 vs 5.7 More than 35% better at knocking out good defenders
Much better takedown defense 8.5 vs 7.5 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better striker 8.6 vs 8.0 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Puts up a fight 8.7 vs 7.8 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly younger 28 years vs 39 years Around 30% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly fast finishes 8.6 vs 8.1 More than 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger jaw 8.0 vs 7.4 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Longer reach 182 cm vs 178 cm Almost the same
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Joe Pearson
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 7.4 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better submission offense 8.3 vs 7.7 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Koch on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Pearson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Erik
Koch
In 6:24, how much damage will he do? Koch Pearson
Significant Strikes29
Koch's average striking offense is matched by Pearson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 58 Significant Strikes in 6:24
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Koch's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Pearson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 6:24
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Koch has a chance to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Koch is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Koch is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Pearson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Koch’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Joe
Pearson
In 6:24, how much damage will he do? Pearson Koch
Significant Strikes17
Pearson's average striking offense won't be a factor against Koch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 58 Significant Strikes in 6:24
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Pearson's average takedown offense is matched by Koch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 6:24
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Pearson is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Pearson has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Pearson is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Koch 8.6
fighter Pearson 8.0
Great striking by Koch
40 strikes Sep 17, 2011 vs Brookins
4 strikes Mar 19, 2011 vs Assuncao
14 strikes Jun 20, 2010 vs Casimir

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Koch 7.8
fighter Pearson 5.7
Great knockouts by Koch
Round 1 Mar 19, 2011 vs Assuncao
Round 1 Nov 11, 2010 vs Rivera
Round 1 Jun 02, 2007 vs Combs

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Koch 7.7
fighter Pearson 8.3
Great submissions by Pearson
Round 1 Jun 14, 2008 vs Hosman
Round 1 Aug 17, 2007 vs Reynol
Round 1 Nov 05, 2006 vs Maeda

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Koch 8.6
fighter Pearson 8.1
Fast finishes by Koch
152 seconds Mar 19, 2011 vs Assuncao
181 seconds Jun 20, 2010 vs Casimir
180 seconds Apr 05, 2008 vs Pearson
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
R1 SUBX
XR2 SUB
1,7621,869
1,8271,804
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Koch
legend Pearson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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