UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Koch vs Brookins

1,897

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Koch

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
60% chance Koch
WILL WIN

1,826

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Erik Koch
Much harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.2 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much heavier hands 7.8 vs 7.0 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.1 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly fast finishes 8.6 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 29 years vs 32 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Heavier 155 lbs vs 144 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Jonathan Brookins
Much stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 7.4 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly stronger jaw 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission offense 8.0 vs 7.7 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Longer reach 188 cm vs 182 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better takedown defense 8.8 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Taller 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Better striker 8.7 vs 8.6 Almost the same
Koch on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Brookins’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Erik
Koch
In 10:40, how much damage will he do? Koch Brookins
Significant Strikes60
Koch's average striking offense may be a factor against Brookins's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:40
Average
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Koch's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Brookins's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:40
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Koch is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Koch has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Koch is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Brookins on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Koch’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jonathan
Brookins
In 10:40, how much damage will he do? Brookins Koch
Significant Strikes45
Brookins's good striking offense is matched by Koch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:40
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Brookins's average takedown offense is matched by Koch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:40
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Brookins is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Brookins has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Brookins is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Koch 8.6
fighter Brookins 8.7
Great striking by Brookins
18 strikes Feb 15, 2012 vs Rocha
32 strikes Dec 04, 2010 vs Johnson

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Koch 7.4
fighter Brookins 8.7
Great takedowns by Brookins
1 takedown Feb 15, 2012 vs Rocha
3 takedowns Dec 04, 2010 vs Johnson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Koch 7.8
fighter Brookins 7.0
Great knockouts by Koch
Round 1 Mar 19, 2011 vs Assuncao
Round 1 Nov 11, 2010 vs Rivera
Round 1 Jun 02, 2007 vs Combs

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Koch 7.7
fighter Brookins 8.1
Great submissions by Brookins
Round 2 Sep 26, 2009 vs Palomino
Round 1 Apr 03, 2009 vs Ledbetter
Round 2 Jun 30, 2007 vs Jabouin

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Koch 8.6
fighter Brookins 8.2
Fast finishes by Koch
152 seconds Mar 19, 2011 vs Assuncao
181 seconds Jun 20, 2010 vs Casimir
180 seconds Apr 05, 2008 vs Pearson
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
September 17, 2011UFC Fight Night 25
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
R2 SUBX
1,9781,885
2,0151,848
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Koch
legend Brookins
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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