UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Koch vs Martin

1,897

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Koch

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
58% chance Koch
WILL WIN

1,843

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Erik Koch
Significantly harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Heavier hands 7.8 vs 7.2 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.6 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission defense 9.0 vs 8.3 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Fast finishes 8.6 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better takedown defense 8.5 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Advantages for Tony Martin
Much stronger takedown offense 8.5 vs 7.4 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Taller 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Better submission offense 8.3 vs 7.7 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger jaw 8.2 vs 8.0 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Younger 27 years vs 29 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Koch on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Martin’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Erik
Koch
In 9:42, how much damage will he do? Koch Martin
Significant Strikes48
Koch's average striking offense is matched by Martin's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 87 Significant Strikes in 9:42
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Koch's poor takedown offense won't be a factor against Martin's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:42
Poor
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Koch has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Koch has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Koch is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Martin on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Koch’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tony
Martin
In 9:42, how much damage will he do? Martin Koch
Significant Strikes31
Martin's average striking offense won't be a factor against Koch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 87 Significant Strikes in 9:42
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Martin's average takedown offense is matched by Koch's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:42
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Martin is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Martin has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Martin is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Koch 8.6
fighter Martin 8.2
Great striking by Koch
40 strikes Sep 17, 2011 vs Brookins
4 strikes Mar 19, 2011 vs Assuncao
14 strikes Jun 20, 2010 vs Casimir

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Koch 7.8
fighter Martin 7.2
Great knockouts by Koch
Round 1 Mar 19, 2011 vs Assuncao
Round 1 Nov 11, 2010 vs Rivera
Round 1 Jun 02, 2007 vs Combs

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Koch 7.7
fighter Martin 8.3
Great submissions by Martin
Round 2 Sep 14, 2013 vs Gifford
Round 3 Sep 08, 2012 vs Knutson
Round 1 Apr 28, 2012 vs Kuchlong

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Koch 8.6
fighter Martin 8.2
Fast finishes by Koch
152 seconds Mar 19, 2011 vs Assuncao
181 seconds Jun 20, 2010 vs Casimir
180 seconds Apr 05, 2008 vs Pearson
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Koch
legend Martin
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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