UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Karalexis vs Pettis

1,628

CageRank

WINNER
Pettis

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
96% chance Pettis
WILL WIN

2,178

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Anthony Pettis
Fast finishes 9.3 vs 7.3 Around 30% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better submission offense 8.4 vs 6.6 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 9.4 vs 8.6 Around 10% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much stronger jaw 8.9 vs 7.8 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Much better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.0 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 8.2 Around 15% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly heavier hands 8.3 vs 7.6 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly longer reach 184 cm vs 168 cm Around 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly younger 30 years vs 40 years 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Significantly better striker 8.6 vs 8.2 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Taller 175 cm vs 173 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Alex Karalexis
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.6 vs 8.0 More than 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Pettis on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Karalexis’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Anthony
Pettis
In 5:05, how much damage will he do? Pettis Karalexis
Significant Strikes23
Pettis's average striking offense is matched by Karalexis's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 46 Significant Strikes in 5:05
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns0
Pettis's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Karalexis's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:05
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Pettis has a very good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Pettis has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Pettis is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Karalexis on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Pettis’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Alex
Karalexis
In 5:05, how much damage will he do? Karalexis Pettis
Significant Strikes11
Karalexis's average striking offense won't be a factor against Pettis's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 46 Significant Strikes in 5:05
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Karalexis's average takedown offense is matched by Pettis's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 3 Takedowns in 5:05
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Karalexis is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Karalexis is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Karalexis is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Pettis 8.6
fighter Karalexis 8.2
Great striking by Pettis
9 strikes Aug 31, 2013 vs Henderson
18 strikes Jan 26, 2013 vs Cerrone
9 strikes Feb 26, 2012 vs Lauzon

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Pettis 8.0
fighter Karalexis 8.6
Great takedowns by Karalexis
1 takedown Mar 01, 2009 vs McIntyre
3 takedowns Jun 03, 2007 vs Smith
3 takedowns Jan 20, 2007 vs Alfonso

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Pettis 8.3
fighter Karalexis 7.6
Great knockouts by Pettis
Round 1 Jan 26, 2013 vs Cerrone
Round 1 Feb 26, 2012 vs Lauzon
Round 1 Mar 06, 2010 vs Castillo

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Pettis 8.4
fighter Karalexis 6.6
Great submissions by Pettis
Round 1 Aug 31, 2013 vs Henderson
Round 3 Aug 18, 2010 vs Roller
Round 2 Apr 24, 2010 vs Karalexis

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Pettis 9.3
fighter Karalexis 7.3
Fast finishes by Pettis
271 seconds Aug 31, 2013 vs Henderson
155 seconds Jan 26, 2013 vs Cerrone
81 seconds Feb 26, 2012 vs Lauzon
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
April 24, 2010WEC 48
team
VS
team
XR2 SUB
XR2 KO
1,7331,819
1,6951,857
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Pettis
legend Karalexis
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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