UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cruz vs Aldo

2,179

CageRank

WINNER
Aldo

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
68% chance Aldo
WILL WIN

2,308

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Jose Aldo
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.3 Around 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 7.5 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.1 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Harder to hit 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 9.1 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better takedown defense 9.5 vs 9.1 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better submission offense 6.6 vs 6.4 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Longer reach 178 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Stronger jaw 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier 144 lbs vs 133 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Dominick Cruz
Much stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 7.9 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Taller 173 cm vs 170 cm Almost the same
Aldo on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cruz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jose
Aldo
In 11:29, how much damage will he do? Aldo Cruz
Significant Strikes53
Aldo's good striking offense is matched by Cruz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 103 Significant Strikes in 11:29
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Aldo's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Cruz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:29
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Aldo is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aldo has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Cruz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aldo’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dominick
Cruz
In 11:29, how much damage will he do? Cruz Aldo
Significant Strikes45
Cruz's good striking offense won't be a factor against Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 103 Significant Strikes in 11:29
Good
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Cruz's excellent takedown offense is matched by Aldo's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:29
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cruz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cruz is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cruz has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Aldo 8.9
fighter Cruz 8.8
Great striking by Aldo
76 strikes Feb 02, 2013 vs Edgar
51 strikes Oct 08, 2011 vs Florian
38 strikes Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aldo 7.9
fighter Cruz 9.4
Great takedowns by Cruz
10 takedowns Oct 01, 2011 vs Johnson
4 takedowns Jul 02, 2011 vs Faber
6 takedowns Dec 16, 2010 vs Jorgensen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aldo 8.8
fighter Cruz 7.5
Great knockouts by Aldo
Round 1 Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
Round 2 Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
Round 1 Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aldo 6.6
fighter Cruz 6.4
Great submissions by Aldo
Round 1 Jul 09, 2005 vs Silverio
Round 1 Mar 19, 2005 vs de Paula

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aldo 8.7
fighter Cruz 7.3
Fast finishes by Aldo
299 seconds Jan 14, 2012 vs Mendes
380 seconds Nov 18, 2009 vs Thomas Brown
8 seconds Jun 07, 2009 vs Swanson
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aldo
legend Cruz
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 1 comment.
Would be interesting at 140lbs
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