UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cruz vs Diaz

2,179

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Cruz

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
54% chance Cruz
WILL WIN

2,151

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Dominick Cruz
Much stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 7.6 Around 25% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better takedown defense 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Younger 31 years vs 34 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Nick Diaz
Much better submission offense 8.0 vs 6.4 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 7.3 Around 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better striker 9.7 vs 8.8 More than 10% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Much heavier hands 8.4 vs 7.5 Around 15% better at knocking out good defenders
Much longer reach 193 cm vs 173 cm More than 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Significantly stronger jaw 9.8 vs 8.8 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
A lot taller 185 cm vs 173 cm More than 5% taller
Puts up a fight 9.9 vs 9.1 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier 169 lbs vs 133 lbs More than 25% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 9.1 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Cruz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dominick
Cruz
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Cruz Diaz
Significant Strikes87
Cruz's good striking offense may be a factor against Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Cruz's excellent takedown offense will dominate Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cruz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cruz is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cruz has a very good chance of winning by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cruz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nick
Diaz
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Diaz Cruz
Significant Strikes97
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Cruz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Cruz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cruz 8.8
fighter Diaz 9.7
Great striking by Diaz
178 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Penn
44 strikes Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
13 strikes Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cruz 9.4
fighter Diaz 7.6
Great takedowns by Cruz
10 takedowns Oct 01, 2011 vs Johnson
4 takedowns Jul 02, 2011 vs Faber
6 takedowns Dec 16, 2010 vs Jorgensen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cruz 7.5
fighter Diaz 8.4
Great knockouts by Diaz
Round 1 Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
Round 1 Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
Round 1 Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cruz 6.4
fighter Diaz 8.0
Great submissions by Diaz
Round 1 May 29, 2010 vs Sakurai
Round 3 Jun 06, 2009 vs Smith
Round 3 Aug 26, 2006 vs Neer

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cruz 7.3
fighter Diaz 8.7
Fast finishes by Diaz
297 seconds Apr 09, 2011 vs Daley
278 seconds Jan 30, 2010 vs Zaromskis
280 seconds Feb 05, 2005 vs Fickett
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cruz
legend Diaz
Read More
Cruz vs McGregor
Fantasy Cage Match
Diaz vs Diaz
Fantasy Cage Match
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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