UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cruz vs Barao

2,179

CageRank

WINNER
Barao

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
52% chance Barao
WILL WIN

2,194

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Renan Barao
Much better submission offense 8.5 vs 6.4 Around 35% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 8.6 vs 7.3 Around 20% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Longer reach 179 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier 134 lbs vs 133 lbs Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 9.1 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.5 vs 9.1 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Heavier hands 7.7 vs 7.5 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Better takedown defense 9.3 vs 9.1 Almost the same
Advantages for Dominick Cruz
Much stronger takedown offense 9.4 vs 8.0 Around 20% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Taller 173 cm vs 170 cm Almost the same
Barao on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cruz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Renan
Barao
In 11:40, how much damage will he do? Barao Cruz
Significant Strikes54
Barao's good striking offense is matched by Cruz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 105 Significant Strikes in 11:40
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Barao's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Cruz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:40
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Barao is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Barao has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Barao is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Cruz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Barao’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Dominick
Cruz
In 11:40, how much damage will he do? Cruz Barao
Significant Strikes54
Cruz's good striking offense is matched by Barao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 105 Significant Strikes in 11:40
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Cruz's excellent takedown offense is matched by Barao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:40
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cruz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cruz is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cruz has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Barao 8.9
fighter Cruz 8.8
Great striking by Barao
36 strikes Feb 16, 2013 vs McDonald
85 strikes Jul 21, 2012 vs Faber
104 strikes Feb 04, 2012 vs Jorgensen

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Barao 8.0
fighter Cruz 9.4
Great takedowns by Cruz
10 takedowns Oct 01, 2011 vs Johnson
4 takedowns Jul 02, 2011 vs Faber
6 takedowns Dec 16, 2010 vs Jorgensen

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Barao 7.7
fighter Cruz 7.5
Great knockouts by Barao
Round 2 Sep 21, 2013 vs Wineland
Round 2 Aug 13, 2009 vs Sardinha
Round 3 Nov 29, 2008 vs Pinheiro

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Barao 8.5
fighter Cruz 6.4
Great submissions by Barao
Round 4 Feb 16, 2013 vs McDonald
Round 1 Nov 05, 2011 vs Pickett
Round 1 Dec 16, 2010 vs Cariaso

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Barao 8.6
fighter Cruz 7.3
Fast finishes by Barao
335 seconds Sep 21, 2013 vs Wineland
1137 seconds Feb 16, 2013 vs McDonald
249 seconds Nov 05, 2011 vs Pickett
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Barao
legend Cruz
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
Showing 5 comments.
go grab a pillow and fullf your mom
yoiudfijkj
bitiitijslkc
cruz would kill this girl just like he will to pillashaw, the cocaine addict.
This would be a fantastic fight.
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