UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cerrone vs Thompson

2,206

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Cerrone

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
85% chance Cerrone
WILL WIN

1,900

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Donald Cerrone
Much better submission offense 8.7 vs 6.8 More than 25% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.1 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.2 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.5 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.6 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Advantages for Stephen Thompson
Heavier hands 8.6 vs 7.9 Around 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Longer reach 191 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Harder to hit 8.5 vs 8.4 Almost the same
Stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 8.0 Almost the same
Cerrone on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Thompson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Donald
Cerrone
In 7:02, how much damage will he do? Cerrone Thompson
Significant Strikes41
Cerrone's excellent striking offense will dominate Thompson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 63 Significant Strikes in 7:02
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Cerrone's average takedown offense is matched by Thompson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:02
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cerrone is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cerrone has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Cerrone is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Thompson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cerrone’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Stephen
Thompson
In 7:02, how much damage will he do? Thompson Cerrone
Significant Strikes41
Thompson's good striking offense may be a factor against Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 63 Significant Strikes in 7:02
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Thompson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:02
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Thompson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Thompson is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Thompson is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cerrone 9.0
fighter Thompson 8.9
Great striking by Cerrone
4 strikes Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
9 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
30 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Thompson 8.1
Great takedowns by Thompson
2 takedowns Sep 21, 2013 vs Clements
2 takedowns May 25, 2013 vs Burrell

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Thompson 8.6
Great knockouts by Thompson
Round 2 Sep 21, 2013 vs Clements
Round 1 Feb 04, 2012 vs Stittgen
Round 2 Feb 05, 2010 vs Joles

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.7
fighter Thompson 6.8
Great submissions by Cerrone
Round 2 Nov 16, 2013 vs Dunham
Round 1 Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Round 2 Dec 16, 2010 vs Horodecki

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cerrone 9.2
fighter Thompson 8.1
Fast finishes by Cerrone
280 seconds Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
76 seconds Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
142 seconds Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cerrone
legend Thompson
Read More
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Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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