UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cerrone vs Alvarez

2,206

CageRank

WINNER
Alvarez

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
54% chance Alvarez
WILL WIN

2,231

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Eddie Alvarez
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.0 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Advantages for Donald Cerrone
Significantly better submission offense 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Taller 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Alvarez on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cerrone’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Eddie
Alvarez
In 12:00, how much damage will he do? Alvarez Cerrone
Significant Strikes65
Alvarez's good striking offense may be a factor against Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 108 Significant Strikes in 12:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Alvarez's excellent takedown offense will dominate Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Alvarez has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Alvarez is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Cerrone on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Alvarez’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Donald
Cerrone
In 12:00, how much damage will he do? Cerrone Alvarez
Significant Strikes64
Cerrone's excellent striking offense will dominate Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 108 Significant Strikes in 12:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Cerrone's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Alvarez's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cerrone is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cerrone has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cerrone is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Alvarez 8.7
fighter Cerrone 9.0
Great striking by Cerrone
4 strikes Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
9 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
30 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Alvarez 9.2
fighter Cerrone 8.0
Great takedowns by Alvarez
2 takedowns Oct 25, 2009 vs Kikuno
7 takedowns May 11, 2008 vs Hansen
3 takedowns Mar 15, 2008 vs Amado

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Alvarez 8.8
fighter Cerrone 8.0
Great knockouts by Alvarez
Round 1 Apr 20, 2012 vs Aoki
Round 2 Oct 21, 2010 vs Huerta
Round 1 Jul 21, 2008 vs Kawajiri

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Alvarez 8.1
fighter Cerrone 8.7
Great submissions by Cerrone
Round 2 Nov 16, 2013 vs Dunham
Round 1 Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Round 2 Dec 16, 2010 vs Horodecki

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Alvarez 8.9
fighter Cerrone 9.2
Fast finishes by Cerrone
280 seconds Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
76 seconds Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
142 seconds Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
September 27, 2014UFC 178
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Alvarez
legend Cerrone
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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