UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cerrone vs Nelson

2,206

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Cerrone

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
70% chance Cerrone
WILL WIN

2,061

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Donald Cerrone
Significantly better striker 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly heavier hands 7.9 vs 7.1 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.7 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.8 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Taller 183 cm vs 180 cm Almost the same
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Longer reach 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Slightly fast finishes 9.2 vs 9.0 Almost the same
Advantages for Gunnar Nelson
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.7 vs 8.0 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better submission offense 9.4 vs 8.7 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Younger 29 years vs 34 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Cerrone on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nelson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Donald
Cerrone
In 9:48, how much damage will he do? Cerrone Nelson
Significant Strikes54
Cerrone's excellent striking offense will dominate Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 88 Significant Strikes in 9:48
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Cerrone's average takedown offense is matched by Nelson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:48
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cerrone is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cerrone has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cerrone is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Nelson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cerrone’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Gunnar
Nelson
In 9:48, how much damage will he do? Nelson Cerrone
Significant Strikes48
Nelson's average striking offense is matched by Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 88 Significant Strikes in 9:48
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Nelson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:48
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nelson is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nelson has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nelson is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cerrone 9.0
fighter Nelson 8.5
Great striking by Cerrone
4 strikes Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
9 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
30 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Nelson 8.7
Great takedowns by Nelson
2 takedowns Feb 16, 2013 vs Santiago
1 takedown Sep 29, 2012 vs Johnson

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Nelson 7.1
Great knockouts by Cerrone
Round 1 Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
Round 1 Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
Round 1 Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.7
fighter Nelson 9.4
Great submissions by Nelson
Round 1 Feb 25, 2012 vs Butenko
Round 1 Sep 25, 2010 vs Fadiora
Round 1 Aug 28, 2010 vs Mitchell

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cerrone 9.2
fighter Nelson 9.0
Fast finishes by Cerrone
280 seconds Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
76 seconds Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
142 seconds Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cerrone
legend Nelson
Read More
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Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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