UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cerrone vs Diaz

2,206

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Cerrone

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
70% chance Cerrone
WILL WIN

2,056

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Donald Cerrone
Much better takedown defense 9.0 vs 7.9 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly heavier hands 7.9 vs 7.4 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Significantly fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Stronger takedown offense 8.0 vs 7.8 Almost the same
Advantages for Nate Diaz
Harder to hit 8.7 vs 8.4 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better striker 9.3 vs 9.0 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Longer reach 193 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Slightly younger 32 years vs 34 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Cerrone on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Diaz’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Donald
Cerrone
In 11:18, how much damage will he do? Cerrone Diaz
Significant Strikes61
Cerrone's excellent striking offense will dominate Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 102 Significant Strikes in 11:18
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Cerrone's average takedown offense is matched by Diaz's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:18
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cerrone is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cerrone has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cerrone is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Diaz on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cerrone’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Nate
Diaz
In 11:18, how much damage will he do? Diaz Cerrone
Significant Strikes75
Diaz's excellent striking offense will dominate Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 102 Significant Strikes in 11:18
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Diaz's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:18
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Diaz is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Diaz has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Diaz is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cerrone 9.0
fighter Diaz 9.3
Great striking by Diaz
33 strikes Nov 30, 2013 vs Maynard
46 strikes May 05, 2012 vs Miller
238 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Cerrone

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Diaz 7.8
Great takedowns by Cerrone
1 takedown Nov 16, 2013 vs Dunham
2 takedowns Dec 16, 2010 vs Horodecki
3 takedowns Sep 30, 2010 vs Varner

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Diaz 7.4
Great knockouts by Cerrone
Round 1 Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
Round 1 Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
Round 1 Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.7
fighter Diaz 8.6
Great submissions by Cerrone
Round 2 Nov 16, 2013 vs Dunham
Round 1 Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Round 2 Dec 16, 2010 vs Horodecki

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cerrone 9.2
fighter Diaz 8.7
Fast finishes by Cerrone
280 seconds Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
76 seconds Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
142 seconds Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
December 30, 2011UFC 141
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
DECX
2,1061,938
2,0342,011
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cerrone
legend Diaz
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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