UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cerrone vs Stephens

2,206

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Cerrone

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
79% chance Cerrone
WILL WIN

1,978

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Donald Cerrone
Much better submission offense 8.7 vs 6.5 Around 35% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.0 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better striker 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Taller 183 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Heavier 169 lbs vs 144 lbs More than 15% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Longer reach 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Slightly stronger jaw 9.2 vs 9.1 Almost the same
Slightly better submission defense 9.4 vs 9.2 Almost the same
Advantages for Jeremy Stephens
Much harder to hit 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Heavier hands 8.2 vs 7.9 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Younger 30 years vs 33 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Cerrone on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Stephens’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Donald
Cerrone
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Cerrone Stephens
Significant Strikes72
Cerrone's excellent striking offense will dominate Stephens's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Cerrone's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Stephens's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cerrone is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cerrone has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cerrone has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Stephens on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cerrone’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jeremy
Stephens
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Stephens Cerrone
Significant Strikes77
Stephens's average striking offense is matched by Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Stephens's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Stephens has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Stephens is unlikely to win by submission
Poor
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Stephens is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cerrone 9.0
fighter Stephens 8.5
Great striking by Cerrone
4 strikes Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
9 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
30 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Stephens 8.0
Great takedowns by Stephens
1 takedown Jan 25, 2014 vs Elkins
6 takedowns May 25, 2013 vs Payan
3 takedowns May 08, 2010 vs Stout

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Stephens 8.2
Great knockouts by Stephens
Round 1 Nov 09, 2013 vs Mariano Bezerra
Round 3 Jan 01, 2011 vs Davis
Round 2 Jan 23, 2008 vs Miller

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.7
fighter Stephens 6.5
Great submissions by Cerrone
Round 2 Nov 16, 2013 vs Dunham
Round 1 Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Round 2 Dec 16, 2010 vs Horodecki

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cerrone 9.2
fighter Stephens 8.0
Fast finishes by Cerrone
280 seconds Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
76 seconds Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
142 seconds Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
May 15, 2012UFC on Fuel TV 3
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
R1 SUBX
2,0341,909
2,0661,876
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cerrone
legend Stephens
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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