UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cerrone vs Story

2,206

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Cerrone

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
77% chance Cerrone
WILL WIN

1,994

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Donald Cerrone
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 7.8 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better submission offense 8.7 vs 7.5 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Taller 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Heavier hands 7.9 vs 7.4 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Longer reach 185 cm vs 180 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.9 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Advantages for Rick Story
Much stronger takedown offense 9.2 vs 8.0 More than 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Stronger jaw 9.5 vs 9.2 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Younger 32 years vs 34 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Cerrone on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Story’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Donald
Cerrone
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Cerrone Story
Significant Strikes74
Cerrone's excellent striking offense will dominate Story's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Cerrone's average takedown offense is matched by Story's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cerrone is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cerrone has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cerrone has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Story on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cerrone’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Rick
Story
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Story Cerrone
Significant Strikes84
Story's good striking offense may be a factor against Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Story's excellent takedown offense will dominate Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Story is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Story is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Story has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cerrone 9.0
fighter Story 8.8
Great striking by Cerrone
4 strikes Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
9 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
30 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Story 9.2
Great takedowns by Story
2 takedowns Nov 16, 2013 vs Ebersole
1 takedown Mar 16, 2013 vs Mulhern
4 takedowns May 28, 2011 vs Alves

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Story 7.4
Great knockouts by Cerrone
Round 1 Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
Round 1 Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
Round 1 Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.7
fighter Story 7.5
Great submissions by Cerrone
Round 2 Nov 16, 2013 vs Dunham
Round 1 Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Round 2 Dec 16, 2010 vs Horodecki

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cerrone 9.2
fighter Story 7.8
Fast finishes by Cerrone
280 seconds Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
76 seconds Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
142 seconds Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
August 20, 2016UFC 202
team
VS
team
R2 KOX
XX
00
00
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cerrone
legend Story
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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