UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cerrone vs Ferguson

2,206

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Cerrone

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
78% chance Cerrone
WILL WIN

1,986

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Donald Cerrone
Much better submission offense 8.7 vs 7.2 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.4 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly better striker 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.9 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.9 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Advantages for Tony Ferguson
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 7.9 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Longer reach 193 cm vs 185 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Harder to hit 8.5 vs 8.4 Almost the same
Stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 8.0 Almost the same
Cerrone on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Ferguson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Donald
Cerrone
In 8:55, how much damage will he do? Cerrone Ferguson
Significant Strikes52
Cerrone's excellent striking offense will dominate Ferguson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 80 Significant Strikes in 8:55
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Cerrone's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Ferguson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:55
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cerrone is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cerrone has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cerrone is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Ferguson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cerrone’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tony
Ferguson
In 8:55, how much damage will he do? Ferguson Cerrone
Significant Strikes47
Ferguson's good striking offense may be a factor against Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 80 Significant Strikes in 8:55
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Ferguson's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:55
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Ferguson has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Ferguson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Ferguson is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cerrone 9.0
fighter Ferguson 8.6
Great striking by Cerrone
4 strikes Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
9 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
30 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Ferguson 8.1
Great takedowns by Ferguson
1 takedown Dec 03, 2011 vs Edwards
2 takedowns Jun 04, 2011 vs Nijem

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Ferguson 8.8
Great knockouts by Ferguson
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Riley
Round 1 Jun 04, 2011 vs Nijem
Round 4 Sep 25, 2010 vs Jardine

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.7
fighter Ferguson 7.2
Great submissions by Cerrone
Round 2 Nov 16, 2013 vs Dunham
Round 1 Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Round 2 Dec 16, 2010 vs Horodecki

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cerrone 9.2
fighter Ferguson 8.8
Fast finishes by Cerrone
280 seconds Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
76 seconds Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
142 seconds Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cerrone
legend Ferguson
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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