UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cerrone vs Kelly

2,206

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Cerrone

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
91% chance Cerrone
WILL WIN

1,809

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Donald Cerrone
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 7.9 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better takedown defense 9.0 vs 7.8 More than 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Much better submission offense 8.7 vs 7.4 Around 20% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
A lot taller 183 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Significantly stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly longer reach 185 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.5 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.8 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Paul Kelly
Harder to hit 8.6 vs 8.4 Almost the same
Younger 32 years vs 34 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Cerrone on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Kelly’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Donald
Cerrone
In 8:31, how much damage will he do? Cerrone Kelly
Significant Strikes49
Cerrone's excellent striking offense will dominate Kelly's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 77 Significant Strikes in 8:31
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Cerrone's average takedown offense is matched by Kelly's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:31
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cerrone is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cerrone has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cerrone has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Kelly on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cerrone’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Paul
Kelly
In 8:31, how much damage will he do? Kelly Cerrone
Significant Strikes41
Kelly's average striking offense is matched by Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 77 Significant Strikes in 8:31
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Kelly's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 8:31
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Kelly is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Kelly is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Kelly is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cerrone 9.0
fighter Kelly 8.4
Great striking by Cerrone
4 strikes Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
9 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
30 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Kelly 8.0
Great takedowns by Kelly
1 takedown Nov 20, 2010 vs O'Brien
1 takedown Jun 13, 2009 vs Delgado
3 takedowns Jan 19, 2008 vs Taylor

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Kelly 7.8
Great knockouts by Cerrone
Round 1 Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
Round 1 Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
Round 1 Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.7
fighter Kelly 7.4
Great submissions by Cerrone
Round 2 Nov 16, 2013 vs Dunham
Round 1 Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Round 2 Dec 16, 2010 vs Horodecki

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cerrone 9.2
fighter Kelly 7.9
Fast finishes by Cerrone
280 seconds Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
76 seconds Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
142 seconds Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
February 5, 2011UFC 126
team
VS
team
R2 SUBX
R1 SUBX
1,9661,861
2,0021,825
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cerrone
legend Kelly
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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