UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cerrone vs Varner

2,206

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Cerrone

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
89% chance Cerrone
WILL WIN

1,835

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Donald Cerrone
Much better submission offense 8.7 vs 7.6 Around 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.3 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.6 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
A lot taller 183 cm vs 173 cm More than 5% taller
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.0 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Heavier hands 7.9 vs 7.6 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.8 Almost the same
Longer reach 185 cm vs 182 cm Almost the same
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.9 Almost the same
Advantages for Jamie Varner
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.8 vs 8.0 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Slightly younger 32 years vs 34 years More than 5% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Cerrone on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Varner’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Donald
Cerrone
In 9:13, how much damage will he do? Cerrone Varner
Significant Strikes46
Cerrone's excellent striking offense will dominate Varner's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 83 Significant Strikes in 9:13
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Cerrone's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Varner's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:13
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cerrone is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cerrone has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cerrone is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Varner on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cerrone’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Jamie
Varner
In 9:13, how much damage will he do? Varner Cerrone
Significant Strikes54
Varner's good striking offense may be a factor against Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 83 Significant Strikes in 9:13
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Varner's good takedown offense is matched by Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:13
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Varner is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Varner is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Varner is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cerrone 9.0
fighter Varner 8.9
Great striking by Cerrone
4 strikes Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
9 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
30 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Varner 8.8
Great takedowns by Varner
7 takedowns Dec 29, 2012 vs Guillard
2 takedowns May 26, 2012 vs Barboza
3 takedowns Feb 13, 2008 vs McCullough

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Varner 7.7
Great knockouts by Cerrone
Round 1 Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
Round 1 Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
Round 1 Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.7
fighter Varner 7.6
Great submissions by Cerrone
Round 2 Nov 16, 2013 vs Dunham
Round 1 Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Round 2 Dec 16, 2010 vs Horodecki

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cerrone 9.2
fighter Varner 8.3
Fast finishes by Cerrone
280 seconds Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
76 seconds Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
142 seconds Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
September 30, 2010WEC 51
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
XR1 SUB
1,8461,945
1,9101,881
January 25, 2009WEC 38
team
VS
team
XR5 DEC
XR2 KO
1,8801,993
1,8462,027
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cerrone
legend Varner
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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