UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cerrone vs Nurmagomedov

2,206

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Cerrone

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
52% chance Cerrone
WILL WIN

2,192

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Donald Cerrone
Much better submission offense 8.7 vs 7.8 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.4 Around 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Better striker 9.0 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Longer reach 185 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Heavier hands 7.9 vs 7.7 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 9.0 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 9.1 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Taller 183 cm vs 178 cm Around 5% taller
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Advantages for Khabib Nurmagomedov
Much stronger takedown offense 9.0 vs 8.0 Around 15% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Younger 28 years vs 34 years Around 20% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Cerrone on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Nurmagomedov’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Donald
Cerrone
In 9:55, how much damage will he do? Cerrone Nurmagomedov
Significant Strikes50
Cerrone's excellent striking offense will dominate Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 89 Significant Strikes in 9:55
Excellent
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Cerrone's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Nurmagomedov's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:55
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cerrone is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cerrone has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cerrone is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Nurmagomedov on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cerrone’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Khabib
Nurmagomedov
In 9:55, how much damage will he do? Nurmagomedov Cerrone
Significant Strikes53
Nurmagomedov's good striking offense may be a factor against Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 89 Significant Strikes in 9:55
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Nurmagomedov's good takedown offense is matched by Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 5 Takedowns in 9:55
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Nurmagomedov is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Nurmagomedov has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Excellent
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cerrone 9.0
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.6
Great striking by Cerrone
4 strikes Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
9 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
30 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Nurmagomedov 9.0
Great takedowns by Nurmagomedov
5 takedowns Sep 21, 2013 vs Healy
21 takedowns May 25, 2013 vs Trujillo
3 takedowns Jan 20, 2012 vs Shalorus

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.7
Great knockouts by Cerrone
Round 1 Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
Round 1 Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
Round 1 Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.7
fighter Nurmagomedov 7.8
Great submissions by Cerrone
Round 2 Nov 16, 2013 vs Dunham
Round 1 Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Round 2 Dec 16, 2010 vs Horodecki

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cerrone 9.2
fighter Nurmagomedov 8.4
Fast finishes by Cerrone
280 seconds Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
76 seconds Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
142 seconds Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cerrone
legend Nurmagomedov
Read More
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Nurmagomedov vs McGregor
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Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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