UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cerrone vs Rocha

2,206

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Cerrone

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
87% chance Cerrone
WILL WIN

1,868

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Donald Cerrone
Much heavier hands 7.9 vs 6.7 Around 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 8.2 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.1 Around 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Significantly better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.2 More than 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better striker 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.6 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.9 Around 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Harder to hit 8.4 vs 8.1 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Heavier 169 lbs vs 155 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Taller 183 cm vs 180 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Vagner Rocha
Stronger takedown offense 8.4 vs 8.0 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Better submission offense 8.9 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Cerrone on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Rocha’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Donald
Cerrone
In 7:33, how much damage will he do? Cerrone Rocha
Significant Strikes49
Cerrone's excellent striking offense will dominate Rocha's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 68 Significant Strikes in 7:33
Excellent
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Cerrone's average takedown offense is matched by Rocha's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:33
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cerrone has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Cerrone has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Cerrone is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
Rocha on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cerrone’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Vagner
Rocha
In 7:33, how much damage will he do? Rocha Cerrone
Significant Strikes38
Rocha's average striking offense is matched by Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 68 Significant Strikes in 7:33
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Rocha's average takedown offense won't be a factor against Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 7:33
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Rocha is unlikely to win by knockout
Below average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Rocha has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Rocha is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cerrone 9.0
fighter Rocha 8.5
Great striking by Cerrone
4 strikes Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
9 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
30 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Rocha 8.4
Great takedowns by Rocha
2 takedowns Sep 17, 2011 vs McKenzie

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Rocha 6.7
Great knockouts by Cerrone
Round 1 Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
Round 1 Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
Round 1 Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.7
fighter Rocha 8.9
Great submissions by Rocha
Round 5 Apr 26, 2013 vs Reese
Round 2 Nov 02, 2012 vs Bruno
Round 2 Sep 17, 2011 vs McKenzie

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cerrone 9.2
fighter Rocha 8.2
Fast finishes by Cerrone
280 seconds Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
76 seconds Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
142 seconds Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
June 11, 2011UFC 131
team
VS
team
R3 DECX
R2 SUBX
2,0021,726
2,0191,709
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cerrone
legend Rocha
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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