UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Cerrone vs Gastelum

2,206

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Cerrone

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
81% chance Cerrone
WILL WIN

1,949

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Donald Cerrone
Fast finishes 9.2 vs 7.9 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much better submission offense 8.7 vs 7.5 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better striker 9.0 vs 8.5 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly better takedown defense 9.0 vs 8.3 Around 10% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.2 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
A lot taller 183 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Puts up a fight 9.5 vs 8.5 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly stronger jaw 9.2 vs 8.4 More than 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Longer reach 185 cm vs 182 cm Almost the same
Heavier hands 7.9 vs 7.6 Around 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Advantages for Kelvin Gastelum
Much stronger takedown offense 8.8 vs 8.0 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly younger 25 years vs 34 years More than 25% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Harder to hit 8.5 vs 8.4 Almost the same
Cerrone on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Gastelum’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Donald
Cerrone
In 6:58, how much damage will he do? Cerrone Gastelum
Significant Strikes41
Cerrone's excellent striking offense will dominate Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 63 Significant Strikes in 6:58
Excellent
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Cerrone's average takedown offense is matched by Gastelum's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 6:58
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Cerrone is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Cerrone has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Cerrone is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Gastelum on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Cerrone’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Kelvin
Gastelum
In 6:58, how much damage will he do? Gastelum Cerrone
Significant Strikes35
Gastelum's average striking offense is matched by Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 63 Significant Strikes in 6:58
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Gastelum's good takedown offense is matched by Cerrone's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 6:58
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Gastelum is unlikely to win by knockout
Average
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Gastelum is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Gastelum is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Cerrone 9.0
fighter Gastelum 8.5
Great striking by Cerrone
4 strikes Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
9 strikes Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
30 strikes Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Gastelum 8.9
Great takedowns by Gastelum
1 takedown Aug 28, 2013 vs Melancon
3 takedowns Apr 13, 2013 vs Hall

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Cerrone 8.0
fighter Gastelum 7.6
Great knockouts by Cerrone
Round 1 Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
Round 1 Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
Round 1 Aug 14, 2011 vs Oliveira

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Cerrone 8.7
fighter Gastelum 7.5
Great submissions by Cerrone
Round 2 Nov 16, 2013 vs Dunham
Round 1 Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Round 2 Dec 16, 2010 vs Horodecki

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Cerrone 9.2
fighter Gastelum 7.9
Fast finishes by Cerrone
280 seconds Jan 25, 2014 vs Martins
76 seconds Aug 11, 2012 vs Guillard
142 seconds Oct 29, 2011 vs Siver
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Cerrone
legend Gastelum
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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