UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - McDonald vs Barao

2,022

CageRank

WINNER
Barao

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
73% chance Barao
WILL WIN

2,194

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Renan Barao
Much better takedown defense 9.3 vs 8.2 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly better submission defense 9.5 vs 8.3 Around 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Significantly better submission offense 8.5 vs 7.6 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Puts up a fight 9.7 vs 8.8 Around 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Harder to hit 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better striker 8.8 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Stronger takedown offense 8.0 vs 7.7 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.7 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Longer reach 179 cm vs 177 cm Almost the same
Advantages for Michael McDonald
Significantly heavier 136 lbs vs 134 lbs Almost the same
Significantly heavier hands 8.5 vs 7.7 More than 10% better at knocking out good defenders
Younger 27 years vs 31 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Fast finishes 8.9 vs 8.6 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Taller 173 cm vs 170 cm Almost the same
Barao on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against McDonald’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Renan
Barao
In 10:39, how much damage will he do? Barao McDonald
Significant Strikes56
Barao's good striking offense may be a factor against McDonald's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:39
Good
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns2
Barao's average takedown offense is matched by McDonald's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:39
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Barao is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Barao has a good chance of winning by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Barao is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
McDonald on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Barao’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Michael
McDonald
In 10:39, how much damage will he do? McDonald Barao
Significant Strikes43
McDonald's average striking offense won't be a factor against Barao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 96 Significant Strikes in 10:39
Average
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
McDonald's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Barao's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 10:39
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
McDonald has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
McDonald is unlikely to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
McDonald is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Barao 8.9
fighter McDonald 8.6
Great striking by Barao
36 strikes Feb 16, 2013 vs McDonald
85 strikes Jul 21, 2012 vs Faber
104 strikes Feb 04, 2012 vs Jorgensen

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Barao 8.0
fighter McDonald 7.7
Great takedowns by Barao
4 takedowns Feb 16, 2013 vs McDonald
6 takedowns May 28, 2011 vs Escovedo
1 takedown Jun 20, 2010 vs Leone

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Barao 7.7
fighter McDonald 8.5
Great knockouts by McDonald
Round 1 Apr 21, 2012 vs Torres
Round 2 Jul 09, 2010 vs Escovedo
Round 1 Feb 04, 2010 vs Tapia

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Barao 8.5
fighter McDonald 7.6
Great submissions by Barao
Round 4 Feb 16, 2013 vs McDonald
Round 1 Nov 05, 2011 vs Pickett
Round 1 Dec 16, 2010 vs Cariaso

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Barao 8.6
fighter McDonald 8.9
Fast finishes by McDonald
523 seconds Aug 17, 2013 vs Pickett
198 seconds Apr 21, 2012 vs Torres
372 seconds Jul 09, 2010 vs Escovedo
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
February 16, 2013UFC on Fuel TV 7
team
VS
team
XR4 SUB
XDEC
2,0462,191
2,0162,221
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Barao
legend McDonald
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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