UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Kikuchi vs Aoki

1,847

CageRank

WINNER
Aoki

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 2

prediction
91% chance Aoki
WILL WIN

2,254

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Shinya Aoki
Much better submission offense 9.9 vs 7.5 More than 30% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Much harder to hit 10.0 vs 8.7 More than 15% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Much better takedown defense 9.7 vs 8.2 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Fast finishes 9.4 vs 8.3 Around 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much stronger takedown offense 9.6 vs 8.8 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Significantly better submission defense 9.8 vs 9.0 Around 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Stronger jaw 8.9 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Taller 180 cm vs 173 cm Around 5% taller
Puts up a fight 9.4 vs 8.9 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Younger 33 years vs 38 years Around 15% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Akira Kikuchi
Much heavier hands 7.9 vs 6.1 Around 30% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 8.5 vs 7.4 More than 15% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier 166 lbs vs 153 lbs Around 10% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Aoki on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Kikuchi’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Shinya
Aoki
In 8:09, how much damage will he do? Aoki Kikuchi
Significant Strikes17
Aoki's poor striking offense won't be a factor against Kikuchi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 73 Significant Strikes in 8:09
Poor
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Aoki's excellent takedown offense will dominate Kikuchi's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 8:09
Excellent
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Aoki is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Good
Jaw
Submission
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Excellent
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Aoki has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Average
Scoring ability
Kikuchi on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Aoki’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Akira
Kikuchi
In 8:09, how much damage will he do? Kikuchi Aoki
Significant Strikes15
Kikuchi's average striking offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 73 Significant Strikes in 8:09
Average
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Kikuchi's good takedown offense won't be a factor against Aoki's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 8:09
Good
Takedown ability
vs
Excellent
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Kikuchi is unlikely to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Kikuchi is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Kikuchi is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.6
fighter Kikuchi 8.8
Great takedowns by Aoki
2 takedowns Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
6 takedowns Dec 31, 2011 vs Kitaoka
1 takedown Apr 29, 2008 vs Cavalcante

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Aoki 6.1
fighter Kikuchi 7.9
Great knockouts by Kikuchi
Round 2 Mar 17, 2007 vs Rollins
Round 1 Jul 06, 2005 vs Inoue
Round 1 Apr 23, 2005 vs Brudvik

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Aoki 9.9
fighter Kikuchi 7.5
Great submissions by Aoki
Round 2 Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
Round 1 Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
Round 1 Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Aoki 9.4
fighter Kikuchi 8.3
Fast finishes by Aoki
324 seconds Dec 31, 2012 vs McKee
113 seconds Jul 10, 2010 vs Kawajiri
92 seconds Dec 31, 2008 vs Alvarez
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
XR2 SUB
1,9051,994
1,8672,032
team
VS
team
XR3 DEC
R2 KOX
1,9691,738
1,8901,817
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Aoki
legend Kikuchi
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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