UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Riley vs Pearson

1,755

CageRank

WINNER
Pearson

prediction

BY KO ROUND 3

prediction
72% chance Pearson
WILL WIN

1,919

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Ross Pearson
Much heavier hands 7.9 vs 6.5 More than 20% better at knocking out good defenders
Fast finishes 7.9 vs 6.8 More than 15% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly better striker 8.9 vs 8.3 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Significantly stronger jaw 8.4 vs 7.7 Around 10% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Harder to hit 8.4 vs 8.1 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better submission offense 7.3 vs 6.7 Around 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 7.8 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Puts up a fight 8.8 vs 8.4 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Younger 33 years vs 36 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Aaron Riley
Better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.7 More than 5% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Better takedown defense 8.7 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at avoiding being taken down
Taller 175 cm vs 173 cm Almost the same
Pearson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Riley’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Ross
Pearson
In 11:32, how much damage will he do? Pearson Riley
Significant Strikes73
Pearson's good striking offense may be a factor against Riley's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:32
Good
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Pearson's average takedown offense is matched by Riley's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:32
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Pearson has a chance to win by knockout
Good
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Pearson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Pearson is unlikely to win by decision
Average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Riley on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Pearson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Aaron
Riley
In 11:32, how much damage will he do? Riley Pearson
Significant Strikes53
Riley's average striking offense is matched by Pearson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 104 Significant Strikes in 11:32
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Riley's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Pearson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 6 Takedowns in 11:32
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Riley is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Riley is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Riley has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Pearson 8.9
fighter Riley 8.3
Great striking by Pearson
50 strikes Dec 15, 2012 vs Sotiropoulos
52 strikes Dec 30, 2011 vs Assuncao
59 strikes Feb 27, 2011 vs Fisher

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Pearson 8.1
fighter Riley 7.8
Great takedowns by Pearson
1 takedown Apr 06, 2013 vs Couture
1 takedown Dec 30, 2011 vs Assuncao
3 takedowns Feb 27, 2011 vs Fisher

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Pearson 7.9
fighter Riley 6.5
Great knockouts by Pearson
Round 2 Apr 06, 2013 vs Couture
Round 3 Dec 15, 2012 vs Sotiropoulos
Round 2 Nov 14, 2009 vs Riley

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Pearson 7.3
fighter Riley 6.7
Great submissions by Pearson
Round 1 Nov 01, 2008 vs Jones
Round 1 May 31, 2008 vs Celerier
Round 3 May 03, 2008 vs Marron

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Pearson 7.9
fighter Riley 6.8
Fast finishes by Pearson
525 seconds Apr 06, 2013 vs Couture
641 seconds Dec 15, 2012 vs Sotiropoulos
578 seconds Nov 14, 2009 vs Riley
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
November 14, 2009UFC 105
team
VS
team
XR2 KO
DECX
1,8571,783
1,7961,844
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Pearson
legend Riley
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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