UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Riley vs Ferguson

1,755

CageRank

WINNER
Ferguson

prediction

BY KO ROUND 2

prediction
79% chance Ferguson
WILL WIN

1,986

CageRank

WINNER
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Tony Ferguson
Fast finishes 8.8 vs 6.8 More than 30% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Much heavier hands 8.8 vs 6.5 Around 35% better at knocking out good defenders
Much longer reach 193 cm vs 175 cm More than 10% longer reach; hit opponents from a safer distance
Much stronger jaw 8.9 vs 7.7 More than 15% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
A lot taller 183 cm vs 175 cm Around 5% taller
Significantly harder to hit 8.5 vs 8.1 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Better striker 8.6 vs 8.3 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Better submission offense 7.2 vs 6.7 More than 5% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 7.8 Around 5% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Puts up a fight 8.9 vs 8.4 More than 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Better takedown defense 8.9 vs 8.7 Almost the same
Younger 33 years vs 36 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Advantages for Aaron Riley
Significantly better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.4 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Ferguson on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Riley’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Tony
Ferguson
In 8:01, how much damage will he do? Ferguson Riley
Significant Strikes47
Ferguson's good striking offense may be a factor against Riley's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 72 Significant Strikes in 8:01
Good
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Ferguson's average takedown offense is matched by Riley's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 8:01
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Ferguson has a very good chance of winning by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Ferguson is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Ferguson is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Riley on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Ferguson’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Aaron
Riley
In 8:01, how much damage will he do? Riley Ferguson
Significant Strikes35
Riley's average striking offense is matched by Ferguson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 72 Significant Strikes in 8:01
Average
Striking
vs
Average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Riley's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Ferguson's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 4 Takedowns in 8:01
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Good
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Riley is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Riley is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Riley has a reasonable chance to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Good
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Ferguson 8.6
fighter Riley 8.3
Great striking by Ferguson
5 strikes Oct 19, 2013 vs Rio
61 strikes Dec 03, 2011 vs Edwards
31 strikes Sep 24, 2011 vs Riley

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Ferguson 8.1
fighter Riley 7.8
Great takedowns by Ferguson
1 takedown Dec 03, 2011 vs Edwards
2 takedowns Jun 04, 2011 vs Nijem

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Ferguson 8.8
fighter Riley 6.5
Great knockouts by Ferguson
Round 1 Sep 24, 2011 vs Riley
Round 1 Jun 04, 2011 vs Nijem
Round 4 Sep 25, 2010 vs Jardine

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Ferguson 7.2
fighter Riley 6.7
Great submissions by Ferguson
Round 1 Oct 19, 2013 vs Rio
Round 1 Jan 04, 2009 vs Park
Round 2 Sep 13, 2008 vs Schilling

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Ferguson 8.8
fighter Riley 6.8
Fast finishes by Ferguson
112 seconds Oct 19, 2013 vs Rio
300 seconds Sep 24, 2011 vs Riley
1055 seconds Sep 25, 2010 vs Jardine
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
September 24, 2011UFC 135
team
VS
team
XR1 KO
DECX
1,8421,833
1,7911,885
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Ferguson
legend Riley
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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