UFC fight predictions and analysis
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CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Riley vs Morgan

1,755

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Riley

prediction

BY Decision

prediction
74% chance Riley
WILL WIN

1,576

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Aaron Riley
Much better takedown defense 8.7 vs 7.3 Around 20% better at avoiding being taken down
Much better submission defense 9.4 vs 8.1 More than 15% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Puts up a fight 8.4 vs 7.5 More than 10% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Significantly better striker 8.3 vs 7.9 More than 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Heavier hands 6.5 vs 6.2 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Advantages for Sam Morgan
Much better submission offense 7.6 vs 6.7 More than 10% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Fast finishes 7.5 vs 6.8 More than 10% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.6 vs 7.8 More than 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Stronger jaw 7.8 vs 7.7 Almost the same
Taller 178 cm vs 175 cm Almost the same
Slightly heavier 164 lbs vs 155 lbs More than 5% heavier ; harder for lighter weight opponents to control
Riley on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Morgan’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Aaron
Riley
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Riley Morgan
Significant Strikes81
Riley's average striking offense may be a factor against Morgan's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Average
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Riley's below average takedown offense may be a factor against Morgan's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Poor
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Riley is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Riley is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Riley is unlikely to win by decision
Good
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Morgan on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Riley’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Sam
Morgan
In 15:00, how much damage will he do? Morgan Riley
Significant Strikes63
Morgan's below average striking offense is matched by Riley's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 135 Significant Strikes in 15:00
Below average
Striking
vs
Below average
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns3
Morgan's average takedown offense is matched by Riley's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 8 Takedowns in 15:00
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Morgan is unlikely to win by knockout
Weak
Knockout ability
vs
Average
Jaw
Submission
Morgan is unlikely to win by submission
Average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Morgan is unlikely to win by decision
Poor
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Riley 8.3
fighter Morgan 7.9
Great striking by Riley
46 strikes May 29, 2010 vs Brammer
50 strikes Aug 08, 2009 vs Nelson
98 strikes Nov 15, 2008 vs Gurgel

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Riley 6.5
fighter Morgan 6.2
Great knockouts by Riley
Round 1 Aug 28, 2004 vs Alarcao
Round 1 Jul 14, 2000 vs Stregles
Round 1 Mar 17, 2000 vs Bennett

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Riley 6.7
fighter Morgan 7.6
Great submissions by Morgan
Round 1 Nov 14, 2003 vs Riley
Round 1 May 24, 2003 vs Severson
Round 1 Apr 18, 2003 vs Kirk

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Riley 6.8
fighter Morgan 7.5
Fast finishes by Morgan
52 seconds Apr 09, 2005 vs Ludwig
161 seconds Nov 14, 2003 vs Riley
178 seconds Apr 18, 2003 vs Kirk
Fight History Who won last time these two fought?
Winnner
Prediction
CageRank Before
CageRank After
team
VS
team
XR1 SUB
XR1 SUB
1,7681,773
1,7191,822
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Riley
legend Morgan
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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