UFC fight predictions and analysis
CAGERANK PREDICTION Who will win - Condit vs Brown

2,125

CageRank

WINNER

WINNER
Condit

prediction

BY Submission ROUND 3

prediction
58% chance Condit
WILL WIN

2,072

CageRank
Differences What advantages does each fighter have?
Advantages for Carlos Condit
Significantly better submission offense 7.9 vs 6.8 More than 15% better at securing submissions; more ways to win
Significantly better submission defense 9.2 vs 8.2 More than 10% better avoiding and escaping submissions; less likely to have to tap
Harder to hit 9.3 vs 9.1 Around 5% better at dodging and blocking powerful blows; endures less damage
Taller 185 cm vs 183 cm Almost the same
Fast finishes 8.7 vs 8.5 Around 5% better at finishing the fight quickly; minimize risk of injury or loss
Younger 34 years vs 37 years Around 10% younger ; less time being ground down in the octagon
Puts up a fight 9.6 vs 9.3 Around 5% better defense against being finished quickly; can fight into late rounds
Advantages for Matt Brown
Much better takedown defense 8.5 vs 7.5 Around 15% better at avoiding being taken down
Significantly stronger takedown offense 8.1 vs 7.5 Around 10% stronger at taking people to the ground; can force the fight to the mat
Heavier hands 9.3 vs 8.8 More than 5% better at knocking out good defenders
Better striker 9.1 vs 8.8 Around 5% better at delivering meaningful attacks; can hit better defenders
Stronger jaw 9.6 vs 9.2 Around 5% better at avoiding being knocked out; fewer dangerous concussions
Condit on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Brown’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Carlos
Condit
In 12:05, how much damage will he do? Condit Brown
Significant Strikes52
Condit's good striking offense is matched by Brown's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 109 Significant Strikes in 12:05
Good
Striking
vs
Good
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns1
Condit's below average takedown offense won't be a factor against Brown's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:05
Below average
Takedown ability
vs
Average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Condit has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Condit has a reasonable chance to win by submission
Good
Submission ability
vs
Good
Resistance
Decision
Condit is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
Brown on the attack Our prediction about how he’ll perform against Condit’s defensive skills
Predictions For
Matt
Brown
In 12:05, how much damage will he do? Brown Condit
Significant Strikes52
Brown's excellent striking offense is matched by Condit's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 109 Significant Strikes in 12:05
Excellent
Striking
vs
Excellent
Blocking and avoiding
Takedowns4
Brown's average takedown offense may be a factor against Condit's defense
Note: we'd predict at most 7 Takedowns in 12:05
Average
Takedown ability
vs
Below average
Ability to stay on his feet
If he wins, how will it go down?
Knockout
Brown has a reasonable chance to win by knockout
Excellent
Knockout ability
vs
Excellent
Jaw
Submission
Brown is unlikely to win by submission
Below average
Submission ability
vs
Excellent
Resistance
Decision
Brown is unlikely to win by decision
Below average
Scoring ability
vs
Excellent
Scoring ability
OFFENSE Who’s better on the attack?

striking

Who can land devastating blows when it matters?
fighter Condit 8.9
fighter Brown 9.1
Great striking by Brown
10 strikes Aug 17, 2013 vs Pyle
40 strikes Apr 20, 2013 vs Mein
25 strikes Dec 08, 2012 vs Swick

takedowns

Who's going to take it to the ground?
fighter Condit 7.5
fighter Brown 8.1
Great takedowns by Brown
1 takedown Dec 08, 2012 vs Swick
5 takedowns Apr 21, 2012 vs Thompson
3 takedowns Jun 26, 2011 vs Howard

knockouts

Who's better at knocking out opponents?
fighter Condit 8.8
fighter Brown 9.3
Great knockouts by Brown
Round 1 Aug 17, 2013 vs Pyle
Round 2 Apr 20, 2013 vs Mein
Round 2 Dec 08, 2012 vs Swick

submissions

Who can finish it on the ground?
fighter Condit 7.9
fighter Brown 6.8
Great submissions by Condit
Round 1 Feb 13, 2008 vs Prater
Round 1 Aug 05, 2007 vs Larson
Round 1 Apr 21, 2006 vs Trigg

Fast finishes

Who can end the fight faster?
fighter Condit 8.7
fighter Brown 8.5
Fast finishes by Condit
954 seconds Aug 28, 2013 vs Kampmann
267 seconds Oct 16, 2010 vs Hardy
141 seconds Aug 05, 2007 vs Larson
Cage Rank Over Time See how Cage Rank changes with each fight
legend Condit
legend Brown
Comments Who do you think is a better fighter, and why?
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